中国农村生态环境质量动态评价及未来发展趋势预测

发布时间：2018-01-19 15:08

本文关键词： 农村生态环境质量 PSR模型 GM( )预测模型 “十三五”绿色发展目标　出处：《自然资源学报》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：客观评价和预测我国农村生态环境质量状况及发展趋势,对于保障粮食安全、实现农村经济可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。论文基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型框架,构建了我国农村生态环境质量评价指标体系,分析了2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的动态变化。基于GM(1,1)模型,预测了"十三五"期间我国农村生态环境质量的发展态势。研究结果表明:2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的综合评价得分从0.669下降到0.387,农村生态环境质量总体呈现恶化趋势,农村生态环境承受的污染排放压力越来越大,环境治理投入较少,尚未形成对农村生态环境恶化情形的逆转。如果继续延续过去农业经济发展模式,2020年我国农村生态环境质量状况将会持续恶化,与"十三五"绿色发展的良好愿景目标相差甚远。
[Abstract]:Objective evaluation and prediction of the quality of rural ecological environment in China and the trend of development, to ensure food security. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to realize the sustainable development of rural economy. Based on the pressure-state-response model framework, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of rural ecological environment quality in China. The dynamic changes of rural eco-environmental quality in China from 2000 to 2015 were analyzed based on GM-1) model. The development trend of rural ecological environment quality in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan is predicted. The results show that:. From 2000 to 2015, the comprehensive evaluation score of rural ecological environment quality in China decreased from 0.669 to 0.387. The overall quality of rural ecological environment shows a deterioration trend, rural ecological environment is under increasing pressure of pollution emissions, less investment in environmental management. If we continue to continue the past agricultural economic development mode, in 2020, the quality of rural ecological environment in China will continue to deteriorate. It is far from the good vision of green development in the 13th five-year Plan.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDAZ0241) 国家自然科学基金项目(71273263) 中国博士后科学基金(2016M590164)~~
【分类号】：X821
【正文快照】： 农村生态环境关系城乡的生态安全和食品安全,是我国生态环境的重要支撑,也是城市菜篮子、米袋子和水缸子安全的第一道防线[1]。我国农村生态环境污染形势严峻,污染类型复杂多样,点源污染与面源污染共存,生活污染和生产污染叠加,外加工业、城市等外源性污染不断向农村地区转移,

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