蓝藻生长时变系统非线性动力学分析及水华预测方法

发布时间：2018-01-24 05:00

本文关键词： 蓝藻时变系统水华非线性动力学预测模型　出处：《化工学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为解决现有蓝藻生长动力学模型难以有效描述实际水体中蓝藻生长时变系统的非线性动力学特性,导致水华预测准确性不高的问题,构建蓝藻摄食和营养盐循环模型,并考虑水温、光照等主要影响因素随时间变化对蓝藻生长的影响,进一步建立蓝藻生长时变系统非线性动力学模型,对其常值参数采用遗传算法与数值算法结合的方法进行优化率定,对其时变参数采用多元时序方法进行建模预测,根据分岔理论及时变系统理论分析水华暴发行为的非线性动力学机理,实现对蓝藻生长时变系统的水华预测。通过太湖流域监测实例表明,与现有研究相比,引入时变参数的蓝藻生长动力学模型更能反映蓝藻生长时变系统下水华暴发行为的非线性动力学特性,其水华预测结果更为准确。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem that it is difficult to describe the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of cyanobacteria growth time-varying system in real water effectively by the existing cyanobacteria growth dynamics model, the accuracy of Shui Hua prediction is not high. The feeding and nutrient cycle model of cyanobacteria was established, and the nonlinear dynamic model of cyanobacteria growth time varying system was established considering the influence of water temperature and light on cyanobacteria growth over time. The constant parameters are optimized by the combination of genetic algorithm and numerical algorithm, and the time-varying parameters are modeled and predicted by multivariate time series method. According to bifurcation theory and time-varying system theory, the nonlinear dynamic mechanism of Shui Hua's outbreak behavior was analyzed, and then the forecast of Shui Hua for cyanobacteria growth time-varying system was realized. The example of Taihu Lake basin monitoring showed that compared with the existing research. The dynamic model of cyanobacteria growth with time-varying parameters can better reflect the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of Shui Hua's outbreak behavior under the time-varying system of cyanobacteria growth.
【作者单位】：北京工商大学计算机与信息工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51179002) 北京市市属高校创新能力提升计划项目(PXM2014_014213_000033) 北京市教委科技计划重点项目(KZ201510011011);北京市教委科技计划一般项目(SQKM201610011009)~~
【分类号】：X52
【正文快照】： Development Plans(SQKM201610011009).引言由于我国工业化、城镇化进程快速推进,导致河湖水体富营养化程度日益严重,带来的一个突出的问题是蓝藻水华的暴发[1]。大规模的蓝藻水华降低了水资源利用效能,引起严重的生态破坏及巨大的经济损失,给公众健康带来极大隐患[2-4],已经

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