中国畜牧业碳排放量变化的影响因素分解及空间分异

发布时间：2018-01-27 23:42

本文关键词： 排放控制温室气体粪便畜牧业驱动效应对数平均迪氏指数分解法空间分异　出处：《农业工程学报》2017年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：畜牧业温室气体排放占人类活动温室气体排放总量的18%,已成为全球温室气体排放的重要贡献部门。运用全生命周期评价法全面测度了2000-2014年中国大陆31个省区的畜牧业碳排放,采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法,将畜牧业碳排放分解为畜牧业生产效率、农业生产结构调整、单位农业人口农业生产收益、城镇化和总人口增长5大因素,从时空2个层面揭示了畜牧业碳排放的驱动效应。结果表明:1)2000-2014年,中国畜牧业碳排放总量由1.374×10~8 t增长到1.506×10~8 t,年均增速0.654%,其中畜禽胃肠发酵和粪便管理系统产生的碳排放是其主要来源,两者占畜牧业碳排放总量比例达65.58%~73.23%。2)无论从时间还是空间层面看,畜牧业生产效率都是抑制中国畜牧业碳排放持续增长的最重要因素,单位农业人口农业生产效益则是导致中国畜牧业碳排量持续增长的最重要因素,这一因素对草原畜牧业区和农耕畜牧业区的畜牧业碳排放促进作用非常明显,而对经济发达地区较为有限;总人口增长是促使畜牧业碳排放增长的另一重要因素,尤其是对人口大量流入的经济发达地区和计划生育政策宽松的广大西部少数民族地区更为明显。3)2000-2014年,城镇化是有效抑制畜牧业碳排放的第二大因素,而农业结构调整对畜牧业碳排放变化呈现由正向驱动转为负向驱动的变化特征,这一特征在中国畜牧业较为发达的中东部地区表现较为明显。
[Abstract]:Animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions accounted for 18% of the total greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. It has become an important contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon emissions from livestock husbandry of 31 provinces and regions in mainland China from 2000 to 2014 were comprehensively measured by using the life-cycle assessment method. The carbon emission of animal husbandry was decomposed into five factors, namely, livestock production efficiency, agricultural production structure adjustment, agricultural production income per unit agricultural population, urbanization and total population growth by using logarithmic average di's index decomposition method. The driving effect of carbon emission from animal husbandry was revealed from two aspects of time and space. The total carbon emission from animal husbandry in China increased from 1.374 脳 10 ~ (8) t to 1.506 脳 10 ~ (8) t, with an average annual growth rate of 0.654%. Among them, the carbon emissions from gastrointestinal fermentation and fecal management system are the main sources. The ratio of the two to the total carbon emissions of animal husbandry reached 65.58 and 73.23. 2) both from the time and space level. The efficiency of animal husbandry production is the most important factor to restrain the continuous increase of carbon emissions of China's animal husbandry, and the agricultural production benefit per unit of agricultural population is the most important factor leading to the sustained increase of carbon emission of animal husbandry in China. The effect of this factor on the carbon emission of animal husbandry in grassland and farming and animal husbandry areas is very obvious, but it is relatively limited in the economically developed areas. The growth of the total population is another important factor contributing to the increase in carbon emissions from livestock. In particular, it is more evident in the economically developed areas with a large influx of population and in the vast western minority areas where the family planning policy is loose. Urbanization is the second major factor to effectively restrain carbon emissions from animal husbandry, and the change of carbon emissions from positive to negative driven by agricultural structure adjustment. This characteristic is more obvious in the middle and east of China where animal husbandry is more developed.
【作者单位】：南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心;南昌大学经济管理学院;南昌大学计量经济研究会;
【基金】：江西省社会科学“十三五”规划项目(16YJ11) 国家社科基金重点项目(2015AZD070)
【分类号】：F326.3;X713
【正文快照】： 姚成胜,钱双双,毛跃华,李政通.中国畜牧业碳排放量变化的影响因素分解及空间分异[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(12):10-19.doi:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.12.002 http://www.tcsae.orgYao Chengsheng,Qian Shuangshuang,Mao Yuehua,Li Zhengtong.Decomposition of impacting

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