基于数据同化校正参数的河流磷迁移估计研究

发布时间：2018-01-29 23:01

本文关键词： 河流泥沙磷迁移粒子滤波数据同化物联网　出处：《水利学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过磷迁移数学模型合理估计磷在河流中的时空分布,对防治水体富营养化,抑制水华暴发具有重要的科学和工程意义。数据同化方法可以将模型和观测两种研究手段有机地结合起来,将观测数据融入模型,优化模型状态变量,校正模型参数,进而提高数学模型的模拟预报精度,并依托物联网技术将传统数学模型发展为实时数学模型。本文将粒子滤波数据同化算法引入到水动力-泥沙-磷迁移模型中,以实测的断面磷含量作为观测数据,在观测时刻优化磷含量估计结果,同时校正模型参数磷相平衡分配系数Kd,构建了水动力-泥沙-磷迁移模型同化系统。将其应用于长江上游寸滩至坝前河段的计算结果表明,所构建的同化系统在真实的河流中计算效果良好,可以有效地优化更新状态变量各相磷含量浓度,并反演出模型参数Kd随水沙水环境条件变化的动态变化过程,同化之后模型模拟预报磷输移过程的精度显著提升,为水质实时模型打下基础。
[Abstract]:The temporal and spatial distribution of phosphorus in rivers can be reasonably estimated by the mathematical model of phosphorus transport, which can prevent eutrophication of water body. It is of great scientific and engineering significance to suppress Shui Hua outbreak. Data assimilation method can combine model and observation methods organically, integrate observation data into model and optimize model state variables. The model parameters are corrected to improve the accuracy of the simulation and prediction of the mathematical model. Based on the Internet of things, the traditional mathematical model is developed into a real-time mathematical model. In this paper, the particle filter data assimilation algorithm is introduced into the hydrodynamic-silt-phosphorus transport model. Taking the measured section phosphorus content as the observation data, the estimation result of phosphorus content is optimized at the observation time, and the model parameter K _ d is corrected at the same time. A hydrodynamic silt-phosphorus transport model assimilation system was constructed and applied to the upper reaches of the Yangtze River to reach the river in front of the dam. The results show that the constructed assimilation system is effective in the real river. The concentration of phosphorus in each phase of the updated state variables can be optimized effectively, and the dynamic change process of model parameter KD with the change of water, sediment and water environment condition can be obtained. After assimilation, the precision of simulation and prediction of phosphorus transport process is improved significantly, which lays the foundation for real-time water quality model.
【作者单位】：清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室;黄河水利科学研究院;中国水利水电科学研究院水环境研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51209230;11372161)
【分类号】：X522
【正文快照】： 1研究背景随着我国水利水电工程建设的快速发展,水利水电工程在国民经济中发挥了巨大综合效益,但同时也带来了一系列的生态环境问题。由于水坝的拦蓄作用,上游河流水动力条件减弱,大量的营养物质被滞留在水库中,造成水库水体的富营养化,在一定的水文气象条件下容易暴发“水华

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