中国居民消费碳排放的影响因素及发展路径分析

发布时间：2018-02-05 20:28

本文关键词： 居民消费碳排放投入产出分析结构分解分析低碳发展路径　出处：《中国管理科学》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在2030年碳排放"达峰"的减排压力下,中国面向工业领域的转型升级和居民消费领域的低碳化发展迫在眉睫。居民消费作为国内生产总值的重要组成部分,所引发的碳排放有可能成为新一轮碳排放的主要推动力。本文以居民消费碳排放为研究对象,利用非竞争型投入产出分析法(NCIOA)测算了中国1995-2009年居民消费碳排放量,采用结构分解分析模型(SDA模型)对碳排放量变动的影响因素进行分析,并考察2007年全民减排政策的实施效果,进一步通过回归方程预测到2030年我国居民消费碳排放的发展路径。实证研究表明,考察期内虽然中国居民消费引致的碳排放量总体呈现显著的上升趋势,但从结构和影响因素的维度来看中国居民消费仍在走低碳发展道路。特别是本文着重分析了2007年居民低碳政策的实施效果,表明全民减排政策并非失效,具体表现为碳排放强度、技术、消费结构、人口都在向减排方向发展,其中人均消费规模是居民消费引致的碳排放增长的关键性因素,说明中国减排工作并没有以牺牲居民需求为代价,是特殊的经济和消费发展阶段的所必然的低碳发展道路。
[Abstract]:In 2030 the "peak" carbon emissions reduction under the pressure of imminent low carbon development China for industrial transformation and upgrading of consumption areas. Residents' consumption as an important part of GDP, caused by carbon emissions may become a new round of carbon emissions. In this paper, the main driving force of residentsconsumption carbon emission as the research object, the input-output analysis method using non competitive (NCIOA) estimates the carbon emissions of residents consumption 1995-2009 years Chinese, using structural decomposition analysis model (SDA model) the influence factors of carbon emissions changes were analyzed, and the effects of the implementation effect of the 2007 national emission reduction policies, further by the regression equation to predict the development of the path in 2030 China's consumption of carbon emissions. The empirical study shows that the study period although the overall carbon emissions Chinese consumption caused significant upward trend, But from the perspective of structure and influencing factors of Chinese consumption is still in a low-carbon development path. Especially, this paper analyzes the effect of the implementation of the 2007 residents of low carbon policy, shows that the national emission reduction policy is not failure, the specific performance of the carbon emission intensity, technology, consumption structure, population to develop in the direction of emission reduction, the per capita consumption the scale is a key factor in the growth of carbon emissions caused by the consumer, that Chinese reduction work has not been at the expense of the needs of the residents of the price, is a special stage of economic development and consumption of low carbon development path.

【作者单位】：中央财经大学统计与数学学院;中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602804) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71573248)
【分类号】：F126.1;X32

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