岷沱江流域社会经济的水环境效应评估研究

发布时间：2018-02-09 07:02

本文关键词： 水环境效应评估 DPSIRM指标体系熵变加权法岷沱江流域　出处：《环境科学学报》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：引入"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理"(DPSIRM)模型模拟经济社会与水环境之间的相互响应关系,构建流域社会经济的水环境效应评估的指标体系,以揭示出流域经济发展中人、水环境相互作用的链式关系.采用熵变加权法对指标体系的各指标进行赋权,得到水环境效应综合评估指数公式.以长江上游岷沱江流域为研究区域,对岷沱江流域2000—2014年水环境效应进行评估研究,通过综合及子系统评估结果分析,探析影响流域水环境可持续发展的关键因素.评估结果表明:岷沱江流域2000—2006年岷沱江流域的水环境效应处于Ⅲ级(基本安全),从2007年开始,岷沱江流域的水环境效应处于Ⅱ级(安全).岷沱江流域水环境效应评估指数在2000—2011年间呈现逐步上升的趋势,但2003—2006年略有下降,2011年达到最大,2012—2014年又逐步下降.各子系统评估指数差异性较大,有着不同的发展趋势,管理子系统各指标对综合水环境效应影响最大,其次为影响子系统指标、响应子系统指标.论文构建的流域水环境效应评估的DPSIRM及熵权模型具有实用性和可行性,为区域水环境规划与综合管理科学决策提供依据.
[Abstract]:The DPSIRM model is introduced to simulate the mutual response between economic society and water environment, and to construct an index system for evaluating the water environment effect of water economy in river basin, by introducing the "driving-pressure-status-effect-response-management" model to simulate the mutual response relationship between economic society and water environment. In order to reveal the chain relation of the interaction between man and water environment in the development of river basin economy, the entropy variable weighting method is used to empower the indexes of the index system. The comprehensive evaluation index formula of water environment effect is obtained. Taking the Mintuo River basin in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River as the research area, the water environment effect of the Mintuo River basin from 2000 to 2014 is evaluated and studied, and the results of the comprehensive evaluation and the subsystem evaluation are analyzed. The key factors affecting the sustainable development of water environment in the basin are analyzed. The results show that the water environmental effects of the Mintuo River basin from 2000 to 2006 are in the third grade (basic safety, starting from 2007). The water environmental effect of the Mintuo River basin is in the second grade (the assessment index of the water environmental effect of the Tuojiang River basin is gradually rising from 2000 to 2011. However, from 2003 to 2006, there was a slight decrease, and in 2011, the maximum value was reached in 2012-2014. The evaluation index of each subsystem had great difference and had different development trend, and each index of management subsystem had the greatest influence on the comprehensive water environment effect, followed by the index of influencing subsystem. The DPSIRM and entropy weight models of watershed water environment effect assessment constructed in this paper are practical and feasible, which can provide scientific basis for regional water environment planning and integrated management.
【作者单位】：成都信息工程大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(No.51209024) 国家社会科学基金(No.13BGL009) 四川省社科项目(No.SC15TJ019) 四川省教育厅项目(No.15ZA0192,16ZA0207)~~
【分类号】：X143;X2

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