社会经济因素对中国城市雾霾的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 13:32

本文关键词： 雾霾社会经济因素 STIRPAT模型面板数据分位数回归　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的发展,中国城市雾霾污染问题日益严峻,许多城市饱受雾霾侵袭,雾霾污染问题引起了广泛关注。在追求经济高速增长的同时,我们也应该重视环境的保护。虽然目前各有关部门已经采取了—系列措施来缓解雾霾污染问题,但城市雾霾污染依然很严重。为了科学有效地治理雾霾,本文从社会经济的角度出发来探讨影响中国城市雾霾污染的主要社会经济因素,以及这些社会经济因素对雾霾的影响方向和影响程度大小,并据此为中国城市雾霾的治理提出科学合理的建议。这对于中国生态文明建设和人民健康生活具有十分重要的意义。本文在文献研究、理论研究以及中国城市雾霾污染现状特征研究的基础上分析了影响中国城市雾霾形成的主要社会经济因素,并据此进行建模实证分析。本文通过对STIRPAT模型的扩展,选取中国2013年46个城市和2014年94个城市的数据,以PM2.5年平均浓度表示城市雾霾污染程度,分析人口密度、人均地区生产总值、单位GDP的用电量、公路客运量占客运总量的比重、民用汽车拥有量、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入以及建成区绿化覆盖率对中国城市雾霾污染的影响,并探讨了中国城市雾霾与人均地区生产总值之间是否存在环境库兹涅茨曲线关系。然后又对论文数据进行了分位数回归,分析处于不同污染水平时,各社会经济因素对城市雾霾的影响。研究结果表明:人口密度、单位GDP的用电量、公路客运量占客运总量的比重及民用汽车拥有量对中国城市雾霾天气具有正向的影响,城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、建成区绿化覆盖率对中国城市雾霾天气具有负向的影响。人均地区生产总值与中国城市雾霾之间的关系符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。雾霾污染处于中等水平的城市,公路客运量占客运总量的比重、民用汽车拥有量以及城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入这三个指标对城市雾霾的影响小于城市雾霾污染水平更低和更高的城市。并根据实证分析结果,结合国外城市雾霾治理的经验,从城市人口、经济、技术、交通和绿化建设五个方面为中国城市雾霾的治理提出合理的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of social economy, the problem of haze pollution in Chinese cities is becoming more and more serious. Many cities have been attacked by haze, and the problem of haze pollution has aroused widespread concern. We should also pay attention to the protection of the environment. Although various departments concerned have taken a series of measures to alleviate the problem of haze pollution, the pollution of urban haze is still very serious. From the point of view of social economy, this paper discusses the main social and economic factors that affect the haze pollution in Chinese cities, as well as the direction and extent of the influence of these social and economic factors on haze. It is of great significance for the construction of Chinese ecological civilization and the healthy life of the people to make scientific and reasonable suggestions for the governance of haze in Chinese cities. Based on the theoretical research and the characteristics of haze pollution in Chinese cities, this paper analyzes the main social and economic factors that affect the formation of haze in Chinese cities, and makes a modeling and empirical analysis accordingly. Based on the data of 46 cities in 2013 and 94 cities in 2014, the average annual concentration of PM2.5 is used to express the degree of haze pollution in cities. The population density, the per capita regional GDP, the electricity consumption per unit of GDP and the proportion of road passenger traffic to the total passenger transportation are analyzed. The impact of civilian vehicle ownership, the per capita disposable income of urban households and the green coverage of established areas on haze pollution in Chinese cities, The environmental Kuznets curve between urban haze and GDP per capita in China is also discussed. Then quantile regression is used to analyze the pollution level. The results show that population density, electricity consumption per unit GDP, the proportion of road passenger traffic to total passenger transport and the ownership of civilian cars have positive effects on the urban haze weather in China. The per capita disposable income of urban households, The relationship between the per capita regional gross domestic product (GDP) and the haze of Chinese cities is in line with the environmental Kuznets curve. The haze pollution is in the middle level of the cities, and the relationship between the per capita regional gross domestic product and the urban haze is in line with the environmental Kuznets curve. The proportion of highway passenger traffic to total passenger transport, The impact of the three indicators of civilian vehicle ownership and per capita disposable income of urban households on urban haze is smaller than that of cities with lower and higher levels of haze pollution. Combined with the experience of haze governance in foreign cities, this paper puts forward some reasonable policy suggestions for the governance of haze in Chinese cities from five aspects: urban population, economy, technology, traffic and greening construction.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X51

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