云南省能源消耗碳排放与经济发展脱钩驱动力影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-01 10:51

本文关键词： 碳排放经济发展 Tapio模型 LMDI模型脱钩努力指数　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：二氧化碳的急剧增加引起了全球气候变暖,对人类的生存环境造成了威胁,因此,如何控制二氧化碳的排放成为国内外重要的环保议题。而云南省作为国内低碳试点省份之一,且云南省正处于工业发展的关键时期,研究云南省经济增长与碳排放的脱钩问题,分析云南省低碳转型路径对云南经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。本次研究在能源消费碳排放核算范围和核算方法进行界定的基础上,对云南省碳排放现状进行了估算,并且对云南省经济发展和碳排放的脱钩情况进行分析。采用了 Tapio模型对2001-2015年云南省能源消耗碳排放与经济发展脱钩状态展开研究;通过LMDI模型对碳排放的变化量进行因素分解,分析经济发展、能源结构、能源强度、人口规模效应素对碳排放的变化量的影响程度,并构建脱钩努力模型,运用脱钩努力指数对云南省的脱钩努力状态进行评价,分析各因素对云南省碳排放脱钩的驱动力影响。力图为云南省实现经济发展和碳排放脱钩提出相应政策建议,为云南省低碳转型路径的展开提供政策参考。研究结果表明:(1)2004-2006年云南省碳排放与经济发展是处于扩张性负脱钩状态,2008年、2013-2015年是强脱钩状态;其余年份是弱脱钩状态。(2)在影响云南省碳排放变化量的因素中,经济发展是二氧化碳排放量增加的主要贡献因素,能源强度是减缓二氧化碳排放的重要贡献力量,人口规模始终都是二氧化碳排放量增长的贡献因素,能源结构因素对云南省二氧化碳排放量增加的贡献作用波动较大。(3)云南省2001-2015年碳排放与经济发展的脱钩努力状态是:2002-2006是未做脱钩努力;2008年、2013-2015年是处于强脱钩努力状态,剩余年份是弱脱钩努力状态。从对云南省脱钩努力贡献作用来看,能源强度脱钩努力的贡献作用最大,其次是能源消费结构,而人口规模效应是对实现碳排放脱钩起到反向作用。
[Abstract]:The sharp increase in carbon dioxide caused by global warming, the threat to the survival of the human environment, therefore, how to control carbon dioxide emissions has become an important environmental issues at home and abroad. Yunnan Province as one of the domestic low-carbon pilot provinces, and Yunnan province is in a critical period of industrial development, the decoupling problem of economic growth in Yunnan province and carbon emissions, it is of great significance to analyze the sustainable development of Yunnan province low carbon transition path on Yunnan's economy. This research based on carbon emissions from energy consumption in the scope of accounting and accounting methods, the status of carbon emissions in Yunnan province were estimated, and the decoupling of economic development in Yunnan province and carbon emissions were analysis using the Tapio model to the 2001-2015 years of Yunnan province energy consumption carbon emissions and economic development of the decoupling state; LMDI model of carbon emissions. Variance decomposition analysis, analysis of economic development, energy structure, energy intensity, the influence degree of population size effect on changes in carbon emissions, and construct the decoupling effort model, evaluation index of Yunnan province to use decoupling decoupling to state, analyzes the factors of carbon emissions in Yunnan province from the driving force. To achieve economic development and carbon emissions decoupling to put forward relevant policy suggestions in Yunnan Province, Yunnan province launched a low carbon transition path to provide policy reference. The results show that: (1) 2004-2006 years of carbon emissions in Yunnan province and the economic development is in the expansionary negative decoupling state, in 2008, 2013-2015 years is a strong decoupling. The rest; the year is weak decoupling. (2) the influence factors of carbon emissions in Yunnan province in economic development is the main contribution to the increase in carbon dioxide emissions, energy intensity is two slow oxidation An important contribution to carbon emissions, the population size is always the contributing factors of carbon dioxide emissions growth, the contribution of the energy structure factors of Yunnan province increase in carbon dioxide emissions fluctuations. (3) carbon emissions and economic development of Yunnan province 2001-2015 years of efforts: 2002-2006 is the decoupling state without decoupling effort; in 2008, 2013-2015 in the years of strong decoupling to state, the remaining year is weak decoupling state. From the efforts of the decoupling effort contribution for Yunnan Province, the contribution to the energy intensity from the largest, followed by the energy consumption structure and population scale effect is to achieve carbon emissions decoupling play the reverse role.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X24;F127

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