基于SD模型的不同区域节能减排系统的仿真模拟研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 17:14

本文选题：不同类型区域　切入点：节能减排　出处：《西南石油大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的飞速发展,工业化、城市化进程不断加快,生态环境现状与经济持续增长却呈现出越来越大的矛盾,全球变暖、大气污染、雾霾风沙等极端天气正在威胁着人们的生产生活现状,环境问题越来越多的引起了社会各界人士的广泛关注。节能减排是应对当前严重环境问题和极端气候问题的有效途径,这也是国际国内政府所广泛认同的,并在积极寻求有效的方式来实现各个环节的节能减排目标。本文在区域经济学、环境经济学、系统动力学和节能减排相关理论等的指导下,对关注区域、困难区域、挑战区域和理想区域的节能减排系统进行了仿真模拟研究。本文从系统动力学的角度对区域节能减排问题进行了分析和研究,以人均GDP和人均碳排放为标准将我国划分为四种不同的区域类型,并以这四种区域为研究对象,将区域的节能减排作为切入点,从宏观层面构建了区域节能减排系统的SD模型。在充分考虑了各影响因素之间的相互关系后,根据现有数据和各变量间的定性关系,用方程式构造它们之间的定量关系。最后,对四种不同类型区域的节能减排系统进行仿真模拟,并对模拟结果进行分析,预测是否能够按时完成我国提出的节能指标和减排任务,并为节能减排工作的开展提出了一系列建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, industrialization and urbanization, the ecological environment and the sustained economic growth are increasingly contradictory, global warming, air pollution, Extreme weather, such as haze wind and sand, is threatening people's production and living conditions. More and more people from all walks of life pay attention to environmental problems. Energy saving and emission reduction is an effective way to deal with serious environmental problems and extreme climate problems. This is also widely recognized by the international and domestic governments, and is actively seeking effective ways to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction targets at all levels. This paper is guided by regional economics, environmental economics, system dynamics and related theories of energy conservation and emission reduction. The energy saving and emission reduction systems of regions of concern, difficult areas, challenge regions and ideal regions are simulated and studied. In this paper, the problem of regional energy saving and emission reduction is analyzed and studied from the point of view of system dynamics. With per capita GDP and per capita carbon emission as the standard, China is divided into four different regional types, and take these four regions as the research object, take the energy saving and emission reduction of the region as the breakthrough point. The SD model of regional energy saving and emission reduction system is constructed from the macro level. After taking into account the interrelation among the influencing factors, the quantitative relationship between the existing data and the variables is constructed by using the equation. This paper simulates the energy saving and emission reduction systems in four different regions and analyzes the simulation results to predict whether the energy saving targets and emission reduction tasks proposed by our country can be completed on time. And put forward a series of suggestions for the development of energy saving and emission reduction.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TK018;X321

【参考文献】