煤炭城市产业生态系统脆弱性评估模型及应用

发布时间：2018-03-05 09:23

本文选题：产业生态系统　切入点：脆弱性　出处：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：面对全球经济深度调整和能源价格剧烈波动,煤炭资源型城市产业生态系统(CCIES)的脆弱性问题已经严重影响到区域经济的可持续发展。不论是从更好地理解一个特定区域自身CCIES的脆弱性状况的角度,还是寻求一个有意义的基准以获得行动方案拟定的经验,从区域层面比较CCIES的健康状况都是值得探究的。然而,针对CCIES脆弱性评估的理论和方法却鲜有涉及,尽管这是影响CCIES综合管理成功与否的关键过程。本文首先从CCIES对经济波动的脆弱性响应机理的基础之上,构建了CCIES脆弱性评估的初始指标体系;然后采用粗糙集理论进行属性约简得到14个有效的指标及相应的权重;之后基于CCIES的综合脆弱性评估指数(CVI),构建粗糙集-逼近于理想解排序法-秩和比(RS-TOPSIS-RSR)模型从整体的角度对CCIES进行脆弱性评估。运用该模型,本文将我国33个典型CCIES依据其CVI得分进行排序并分成3组以进行案例分析。同时为了揭示CCIES高脆弱性存在的关键问题和主要成因,本文还计算了各CCIES的敏感性指数、恢复力指数和稳定性指数。本文研究结论表明:(1)CCIES普遍呈现较高或高脆弱性。从时间趋势来看,脆弱性较高的区域多数未出现脆弱性状况的明显改善,少数城市甚至脆弱性继续增加,健康状况明显恶化。同时,即使一些煤炭城市脆弱性程度始终较低并呈逐年下降趋势,但仍旧面临一些问题,甚至有些问题是十分严峻的。(2)CCIES的脆弱性状况存在区域差异性,产业生态系统脆弱性水平始终维持在较低水平的煤炭城市,大都分布于经济较发达的中国东部地区;CCIES脆弱度始终维持在较高水平的煤炭城市,大都分布于经济相对落后的中国西部地区和东北地区。(3)CCIES的脆弱性格局成因存在差异性。无论是脆弱性较高还是较低的煤炭城市,即便有些城市的总体脆弱性程度基本一致,但其脆弱性格局的成因却不尽相同。本研究对于完善脆弱性理论、拓展脆弱性的研究领域、丰富煤炭资源城市治理理论体系具有重要的理论价值,同时为政府制定政策和企业采取措施以降低CCIES的脆弱性提供决策参考。
[Abstract]:With the depth of the global economic adjustment and energy price volatility, the coal resources city industrial ecosystem (CCIES) vulnerability problem has seriously affected the sustainable development of regional economy. Whether it is from a better understanding of the vulnerability in a specific region of their CCIES point of view, or seek a meaningful reference for the action plan of the experience, from the regional level of CCIES's health is worth exploring. However, the theory and method for CCIES vulnerability assessment are rarely involved, although this is a key process of CCIES integrated management of success. This paper from the CCIES on economic fluctuation vulnerability based response mechanism on the construction of the initial CCIES vulnerability assessment index system; and then the theory of attribute reduction are 14 effective index and the corresponding weight matrix after rough set; Comprehensive vulnerability assessment index in CCIES (CVI), constructing rough set TOPSIS method of rank sum ratio (RS-TOPSIS-RSR) model for vulnerability assessment of CCIES from overall perspective. Using this model, the 33 typical CCIES in China on the basis of the CVI scores are sorted and classified into 3 groups to case analysis. At the same time in order to reveal the main causes and key problems of CCIES high vulnerability, the paper calculates the sensitivity index CCIES, resilience index and stability index. The conclusions of this study show that: (1) CCIES generally higher or high vulnerability. From the time trend, most of the region more vulnerable there is no obvious improvement of fragility, vulnerability and even a few city continues to increase, health deteriorated significantly. At the same time, even if some of the coal city vulnerability degree has remained low and showed a declining trend, but still face Facing some problems, even some of the problems are very serious. (2) the vulnerability in CCIES has regional differences, industry ecosystem vulnerability level has remained at a low level of the coal city, mostly located in the economically developed eastern region China vulnerability; CCIES is always maintained at a high level in the coal city. Most of the distribution in the economy is relatively backward Chinese western and northeastern regions. (3) the causes of the existence of CCIES weak character Bureau differences. Both the fragility of higher or lower coal city, even some of the city's overall degree of vulnerability is basically the same, but its weak pattern causes this study is not the same. To improve the fragility theory, expand the research field of fragile, abundant coal resources city governance theory has important theoretical value, and take measures to reduce for the government and enterprises The vulnerability of low CCIES provides a decision reference.

【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X826;F426.21

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