中国化学需氧量排放强度的空间计量分析

发布时间：2018-03-07 22:36

本文选题：化学需氧量　切入点：空间探索性数据分析　出处：《广西师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国工业化、城镇化进程的快速发展,工业和生活垃圾的大量产生,农业化肥的泛滥使用,生活污水的大量排放,使水污染面临的压力越来越大。水资源是居民日常生活中进行各项社会活动必不可少的物质基础,为了保障居民日常生活活动的正常开展,我们必须要做好水资源的保护工作。不仅仅要把控废水总量的排放,更要严格把控废水中各项污染指标的排放标准,这对水污染的治理工作的开展极其重要。水质的富营养化,微生物的大量繁殖等还原性物质的含量对水资源质量的影响至关重要,而化学需氧量排放量是衡量废水中还原性物质含量的综合指标。除了控制废水中化学需氧量排放量总量之外,还应该严格把控化学需氧量排放强度——单位GDP产生的化学需氧量。本文首先运用探索性空间数据分析方法来分析我国化学需氧量排放强度的空间相关性,结果表明衡量空间相关强度大小的指标Moran指数I均大于0,并且随着时间的发展Moran指数I的值越来越大,都能够在5%显著性水平下通过假设性检验,这充分表明我国化学需氧量排放强度具有明显的空间效应,运用空间计量模型来分析我国化学需氧量排放强度是合适的;其次结合经济学中的趋同模型,建立空间滞后β收敛模型和空间误差β收敛模型,由于2010年前后化学需氧排放总量的统计口径不一致,需要分时段建立模型,运用最大释然估计法来估计各项参数,观察2004-2010年各项参数的估计值,发现β小于0,但是不显著,即没有充分的证据表明该时间段化学需氧量排放强度是收敛的,观察2011-2015年模型的参数估计值,发现两种模型的参数估计值β0,由于SEM模型优于SLM模型,使用空间误差收敛模型(条件趋同模型)来分析我国化学需氧量排放强度会更适合,这也说明我国化学需氧量排放强度在该时间段呈发散的趋势,与我国各个省域地域大、工业发展水平不同、科技创新能力异同等特点相符合;最后通过该模型并结合实际情况为环保部门提供区域性治理、增加环境投资、优化产业结构、加强科技创新能力、淘汰高耗能低产产出设备大力发展循环经济等降低污染物排放强度的建议,为早日实现碧水蓝天、健康良好的可持续性发展环境而努力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in China, the production of industrial and domestic waste, the widespread use of agricultural fertilizers, and the discharge of domestic sewage, Water resources are the essential material basis for carrying out all kinds of social activities in the daily life of residents, in order to ensure the normal development of daily activities of residents, We must do a good job in the protection of water resources. We must not only control the discharge of the total amount of wastewater, but also strictly control the discharge standards of various pollution indicators in the wastewater, which is extremely important to the development of water pollution control work, the eutrophication of water quality, The content of reducing substances, such as the proliferation of microbes, is crucial to the quality of water resources. The amount of COD is a comprehensive index to measure the content of reducing substances in wastewater. In addition to controlling the total amount of COD in wastewater, The emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand (GDP) should be controlled strictly. Firstly, the spatial correlation of emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand (GDP) in China is analyzed by using exploratory spatial data analysis method. The results showed that the Moran index I, the index of spatial correlation intensity, was greater than 0, and with the development of time, the value of Moran index I was larger and larger, and could pass the hypothesis test at the level of 5% significance. This fully indicates that the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand in China has obvious spatial effect. It is appropriate to use the spatial econometric model to analyze the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand in China. Secondly, combined with the convergence model in economics, it is appropriate to analyze the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand in China. To establish the spatial lag 尾 convergence model and the spatial error 尾 convergence model, due to the inconsistent statistical caliber of the total amount of chemical aerobic emissions before and after 2010, it is necessary to establish the model in different periods and to estimate the parameters by using the maximum release estimation method. Observing the estimates of the parameters for the period 2004-2010, and finding that 尾 is less than 0, but not significant, that is, there is no sufficient evidence that the intensity of chemical oxygen demand emissions is convergent during this period, and the estimated values of the parameters of the 2011-2015 model are observed, Because the SEM model is superior to the SLM model, it is more suitable to use the spatial error convergence model (conditional convergence model) to analyze the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand (COD) in China. This also shows that the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand in China is divergent in this time period, which is consistent with the characteristics of different provinces in China, different levels of industrial development, similarities and differences in the ability of scientific and technological innovation, etc. Finally, through the model and combined with the actual situation for environmental protection departments to provide regional governance, increase environmental investment, optimize industrial structure, strengthen the ability of scientific and technological innovation, In order to realize blue water and blue sky and a healthy and sustainable development environment as soon as possible, some suggestions for reducing pollutant emission intensity, such as developing recycling economy and so on, should be eliminated.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X52

【参考文献】