基于江西样板的省域生态文明建设评价及发展态势研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 01:19

本文选题：江西省　切入点：生态文明建设　出处：《东华理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：将江西省纳入全国首批生态文明先行示范区和国家生态文明试验区建设,是党和国家为复制推广生态文明建设的江西样板的所采取的重要举措,也是对生态文明实践的江西样板的高度认可。如何科学、动态、系统地对区域生态文明建设及其发展态势进行研究分析,以提炼科学经验,推广样板模式,完善政策制度,进而使生态文明实践成效卓著,是我国眼下生态文明建设实践首要解决的问题。区域生态文明建设系统具有动态性、复合性以及突变性。在对江西省生态文明建设的社会经济发展水平、资源利用状况与生态环境等方面展开系统分析的基础上,以生态文明综合指数为目标,按经济发展水平、社会发展水平、资源利用水平与生态环境保护四个准则层,从发展质量、公共服务以及资源利用等八个指标层,共计32个指标,建立了江西省生态文明建设评价指标体系。运用粗糙集约简冗余指标,依据重要度大小确立突变级数评价模型,对江西省生态文明建设实践展开评价分析。运用系统动力学理论与方法,构建江西省生态文明建设系统动力学模型,以2010—2014年历史数据为基础进行仿真检验,证明仿真模型的结构和行为与江西省生态文明建设的实际状况是相一致的,对2014—2035年间江西省生态文明建设的发展态势进行仿真模拟。通过对仿真模型变量进行灵敏度检验,选取规模以上工业劳动生产增加率、社会就业人数占总人口比重以及单位工业增加值废气排放量等14个控制变量,结合系统动力学模拟过程中状态变量的变化,调整相关控制变量参数,设计出了维持现状、社会经济优先、资源环境优先和协调发展等四种发展方案,仿真优化不同发展方案下2014—2035年间江西省生态文明建设的发展态势,为江西省开展生态文明先行示范区和国家生态文明试验区建设提供决策参考。主要研究结论有:(1)江西省2005—2014年间生态文明建设发展势头良好,生态文明综合指数总体呈上升趋势,其中社会发展水平与生态环境保护方面发展迅速,是推动生态文明建设发展的主要动力,但仍需进一步加强产业结构优化以及提高资源利用水平。(2)2035年江西省的需水总量、能源消费总量分别达到892.32亿立方米、27747.27万吨标准煤,资源供需平衡指数在2026年达到最大值0.2805后开始下降;江西省废水排放量为19.95亿吨,工业废气排放量达16478.38亿立方米,但江西省的生态环境恶化程度指数并不是持续增长的,而是在2022年达到最大值0.3070后开始下降,这表明资源供需矛盾加剧与生态环境恶化的加重,滞缓了江西省社会经济发展水平的提升,在一定程度上减少了资源消费量与“三废”排放量,进而缩小了资源供需缺口,降低了生态环境恶化程度,从而缓解了江西省资源供需紧张的局面,改善了江西省的生态环境。(3)到2035年,协调发展方案下的江西省的资源供需平衡指数仅为0.1488,生态环境恶化程度指数也只为0.1695,有利于江西省社会经济的高效发展,资源的高效集约利用以及生态环境保护,是促进江西省生态文明建设实践的较优方案。
[Abstract]:Be included in the Jiangxi Province ecological civilization is one of the first national demonstration zone and the construction of national ecological civilization pilot area, the party and the country is an important measure to promote the construction of ecological civilization Jiangxi copy model adopted, is also highly recognized on the ecological civilization practice of Jiangxi model. How to scientific, dynamic, research and Analysis on the regional ecological civilization construction and the development situation of the system, in order to refine the scientific experience, promotion model, and improve the policy system, and then make the ecological civilization practice of outstanding achievements, is China's current practice of the construction of ecological civilization first solve the problem. The system of ecological civilization construction area is dynamic, complex and abrupt changes. In the construction of ecological civilization in Jiangxi province level the social and economic development on the base of system analysis, resource utilization and ecological environment on the aspects of ecological civilization index as the goal, according to the economic The development level, social development level, the level of resource utilization and ecological environment protection in four of the criteria, the quality of development, public services and resource utilization eight indicators, a total of 32 indicators, establish the evaluation index system for the construction of ecological civilization in Jiangxi. By using rough set reduction redundant indicators, an important basis of establishing size series evaluation model evaluation of mutation, the practice of ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province is analyzed. By using the theory and method of system dynamics, Jiangxi province to build the ecological civilization construction system dynamics model, from 2010 to 2014 based on historical data simulation test shows that the situation, structure and behavior simulation model of Jiangxi province and the construction of ecological civilization is consistent. The development trend of 2014 - 2035 years in Jiangxi Province, the construction of ecological civilization is simulated. Through the sensitivity test of the simulation model of variable selection Above scale industrial production to increase social employment rate, the proportion of the total population and emissions per unit of industrial added value of 14 control variables, combined with system dynamics simulation state variable change process, adjust the control parameters, designed to maintain the status quo, social and economic priorities, four development schemes and resource environment priority coordinated development, simulation and optimization of different development schemes of 2014 - 2035 years in Jiangxi Province, the construction of ecological civilization development trend, as the first demonstration area of ecological civilization construction and the National Experimental Zone provides the reference of ecological civilization in Jiangxi province. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in Jiangxi province from 2005 to 2014 years of development of ecological civilization construction of good momentum. The comprehensive index of ecological civilization, the overall upward trend, the level of social development and ecological environment protection in the rapid development, is to promote the construction of ecological civilization. The main power of development, but still need to further strengthen the optimization of industrial structure and improve the level of resource utilization. (2) the total water demand of Jiangxi province in 2035, the total energy consumption reached 89 billion 232 million cubic meters, 277 million 472 thousand and 700 tons of standard coal resources supply and demand balance index reached the maximum value of 0.2805 began to decline in 2026; Jiangxi province wastewater emissions 19.95 tons, industrial emissions amounted to 1 trillion and 647 billion 838 million cubic meters, but the ecological environment of Jiangxi Province, the degree of deterioration index is not growing, it reaches the maximum value after 0.3070 began to decline in 2022, suggesting that the increased resources supply and demand increased with the deterioration of the ecological environment, slow development of social economy in Jiangxi province to enhance the level, to a certain degree to reduce the resource consumption and the "three wastes" emissions, thereby reducing the gap between supply and demand of resources, reduce the deterioration of ecological environment, and alleviate the river from The supply and demand of the West Province resources tense situation, improve the ecological environment of Jiangxi province. (3) to 2035, the balance of supply and demand in Jiangxi province resources coordinated development index scheme is only 0.1488, deterioration of ecological environment index is only 0.1695, Jiangxi Province, is conducive to social and economic efficient development, intensive use of resources and the protection of the ecological environment, promote better ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province.

【学位授予单位】：东华理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X821

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