京津冀协同下北京工业碳排放系统仿真与优化研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 13:01

本文选题：京津冀协同发展　切入点：工业　出处：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着能源需求的不断增加,环境问题日渐突出,逐渐成为经济发展的制约因素。京津冀地区作为我国重要的经济圈其环境问题日益凸显,北京作为京津冀协同发展的核心,近年来饱受人口增长、交通拥堵、空气污染等“城市病”的困扰,在协同发展的背景下,其能源消费碳排放问题备受关注,而工业作为主要的能源消费部门,由于工业总量的增加而造成的碳排放量增加在总的碳排量增加成因中占比最高。因此,以北京工业作为研究对象,测算、分析并仿真预测其碳排放量,对促进北京市经济发展乃至区域协同发展都具有重要的理论和实际价值。本文首先对碳排放核算方法与模型进行梳理,并概述系统动力学的基本理论,确定了本文相应的研究内容与方法;其次,基于北京市工业行业2001-2014年的能源消费数据,利用碳排放系数法测算并分析工业碳排放量及其占比情况;在此基础上,基于系统动力学理论建立了北京市工业碳排放系统动力学模型,利用该模型从工业碳排放总量、工业增加值、总人口、能源消费需求及碳排放强度等角度对北京市2010-2025年的工业碳排放情况进行仿真预测,并从正确性、有效性及灵敏度三个方面对模型进行检验;然后,运用情景分析法分别设定基准型方案、经济高效型方案、能源节约型方案和经济-节约协调型方案四种情景模式,仿真模拟在四种情景模式下北京市2010-2025年工业碳排放运行趋势,依据情景仿真结果,分别从人口子系统、经济子系统以及能源与环境子系统三个方面对四种模式下的系统动态模拟结果进行对比分析;最后,基于仿真结果筛选出适合北京市工业发展的情景模式,并提出发展建议,为北京市的节能减排工作以及工业发展提供政策依据。
[Abstract]:With the continuous increase of energy demand, environmental problems become increasingly prominent, and gradually become the constraints of economic development. As an important economic circle of our country, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have increasingly prominent environmental problems, and Beijing is the core of the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. In recent years, it has been plagued by population growth, traffic congestion, air pollution and other "urban diseases". In the context of coordinated development, the issue of carbon emissions from its energy consumption has attracted much attention, and industry is the main energy consumption sector. The increase in carbon emissions caused by the increase in the total industrial volume accounts for the highest proportion of the causes of the increase in total carbon emissions. Therefore, take Beijing industry as the research object, calculate, analyze and simulate its carbon emissions. It has important theoretical and practical value to promote Beijing's economic development and even regional coordinated development. Firstly, this paper combs the methods and models of carbon emission accounting, and summarizes the basic theory of system dynamics. The corresponding research contents and methods are determined. Secondly, based on the energy consumption data of Beijing industrial industry from 2001 to 2014, the carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate and analyze the industrial carbon emissions and their proportions. Based on the theory of system dynamics, a system dynamics model of industrial carbon emissions in Beijing is established. The model is used to analyze the total amount of industrial carbon emissions, industrial added value, total population. From the perspective of energy consumption demand and carbon emission intensity, this paper simulates and forecasts the industrial carbon emissions in Beijing from 2010 to 2025, and tests the model from three aspects: correctness, validity and sensitivity. Using scenario analysis method to set up four scenario models, namely, benchmark scheme, economic and efficient scheme, energy conservation scheme and economy-economy coordination scheme, and simulate the operating trend of industrial carbon emissions in Beijing between 2010 and 2025 under four scenarios. According to the simulation results, the dynamic simulation results of the four models are compared and analyzed from three aspects: population subsystem, economic subsystem and energy and environment subsystem. Finally, Based on the simulation results, the scenario model suitable for Beijing's industrial development is selected, and suggestions for development are put forward, which can provide policy basis for energy saving and emission reduction in Beijing as well as industrial development.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;F427

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