湖南市域化石能源消费碳排放时空格局及驱动因素

发布时间：2018-03-13 10:45

本文选题：化石能源　切入点：碳排放　出处：《生态学报》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：研究碳排放时空格局演变及其影响因素对指导碳减排具有重要意义。利用2008—2013年湖南省14地市规模以上工业企业终端能源消费数据,运用IPCC提供的参考方法和对数平均迪氏指标分解模型(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)对湖南市域碳排放量、人均碳排放量、碳排放强度的时空格局及碳排放量变化的影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:1)2008—2013年湖南市域碳排放量随时间变化趋势不一,大致呈3种类型变化;累积碳排放量居前3位的市域依次是娄底、岳阳和湘潭,三者累积碳排放量占全省同期的48.92%,而吉首、张家界和怀化3市的累积碳排放量合计仅占全省的2.59%。2)湖南市域能源消费碳排放量、人均碳排放量存在相似的空间差异,二者均表现为东高西低的格局,且具有较强的相关性,碳排放量高的市域,人均碳排放量也较高;2008—2013年湖南市域碳排放强度呈下降趋势,属于低强度区的市域由2008年的4个增加到2013年的7个,碳排放强度的空间分布与市域产业类型有关。3)能源结构、能源强度对碳排放的增长主要起抑制作用,但能源结构的贡献很小,碳排放量的降低主要是由能源强度引起的;经济发展是碳排放增长的最主要因素,在2008—2010年和2011—2013年两个时段其累积贡献值分别为74.285和27.579;人口规模对碳排放的驱动较小,在2011—2013年对碳排放增加产生的累积贡献值仅为2.252。湖南当前及未来碳减排的重点是加快发展清洁能源与提高能效并重,优化能源结构和促进产业结构升级,从战略层面促进湖南"四大区域"协调发展。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to study the evolution of space-time pattern of carbon emissions and its influencing factors to guide carbon emission reduction. Using the data of terminal energy consumption of industrial enterprises above 14 cities and cities in Hunan Province from 2008 to 2013, Using the reference method provided by IPCC and the logarithmic Mean Divisia index decomposition model (LMDI), the urban carbon emissions of Hunan Province and the average carbon emissions per capita are analyzed. The spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emission intensity and the influencing factors of carbon emission change were studied. The results showed that the change trend of carbon emissions with time varied from 2008 to 2013 in Hunan Province, and there were approximately three types of changes. Loudi, Yueyang and Xiangtan are the cities with the top three accumulative carbon emissions, which account for 48.92 percent of the province's total carbon emissions in the same period. The cumulative carbon emissions of Zhangjiajie and Huaihua only account for 2.59% of the province's total energy consumption carbon emissions. There is a similar spatial difference in the per capita carbon emissions in Hunan Province. Cities with high carbon emissions and high per capita carbon emissions also show a decreasing trend of carbon emission intensity in Hunan from 2008 to 2013. The number of municipalities belonging to low intensity areas increased from 4 in 2008 to 7 in 2013. The spatial distribution of carbon emission intensity is related to the type of industry in the city. The energy intensity mainly inhibits the growth of carbon emission, but the contribution of energy structure is very small, and the decrease of carbon emission is mainly caused by energy intensity. Economic development is the most important factor in the growth of carbon emissions, with cumulative contributions of 74.285 and 27.579 in 2008-2010 and 2011-2013, respectively. In 2011-2013, the cumulative contribution to the increase in carbon emissions was only 2.252. Hunan's current and future carbon emissions reduction focus is on accelerating the development of clean energy and improving energy efficiency, optimizing the energy structure and promoting industrial structure upgrading, To promote the coordinated development of the four regions in Hunan from the strategic level.
【作者单位】：湖南科技大学建筑与城乡规划学院;湖南科技大学生命科学学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科项目(14YJAZH050) 湖南省社会科学基金项目(14YBA170)
【分类号】：F426.2;X24

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