基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区道路交通节能减排情景预测

发布时间：2018-03-21 20:39

本文选题：LEAP模型　切入点：节能减排　出处：《北京工业大学学报》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了解决道路交通带来的能源消耗、温室气体及大气污染物排放问题,采用情景分析法,以京津冀地区为例,应用长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型构建了京津冀地区道路交通部门的能源与环境排放模型,对不同情景下2015—2030年的能源消耗、CO_2及污染物的排放情况进行了预测分析.结果表明:京津冀地区各政策情景中,提高燃油经济性情景的节能效果明显,节能率为22.4%.高排放车的淘汰短期节能效果最佳,节能率为19.1%,但长期效果不明显.北京市新能源汽车推广情景的CO_2、NOx长期减排效果最佳,天津市、河北省提高燃料经济性情景的CO_2、CO、NOx、PM2.5减排效果最好.相对于基准情景,2030年综合情景下京津冀地区的节能率为37.1%,CO_2减排率可达到36.8%,其中对污染物CO、HC的减排效果最佳,减排率为45.7%、43.8%.
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problems of energy consumption, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutants emissions caused by road traffic, a scenario analysis method was used to take the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example. The energy and environment emission model of road traffic department in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is constructed by using the long-term energy alternative planning system (Lepp) model. The energy consumption of CO _ 2 and the emission of pollutants in 2015-2030 are forecasted and analyzed. The results show that in the policy scenarios of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the energy-saving effect of the situation of increasing fuel economy is obvious. The energy saving rate is 22.4.The short-term energy saving effect of high emission vehicle is the best, the energy saving rate is 19.1%, but the long-term effect is not obvious. The CO2NX emission reduction effect of Beijing new energy vehicle promotion scenario is the best, Tianjin, Tianjin, Compared with the baseline scenario, the energy saving rate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can reach 36.8 in 2030, among which the emission reduction effect of COHC is the best, and the emission reduction rate is 45.7and 43.8.
【作者单位】：北京工业大学环境与能源工程学院区域大气复合污染防治北京市重点实验室;
【基金】：北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9152001) 环保公益型行业科研专项(201409007)
【分类号】：TK018;X322

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