中国碳排放的经济规模、结构及技术效应——基于33个国家GVAR模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-25 09:40

本文选题：碳排放　切入点：GVAR模型　出处：《国际贸易问题》2017年08期

【摘要】：利用1981-2012年全球33个国家的数据,构建GVAR模型研究中国碳排放的国内国际规模、结构和技术效应,并通过分析其他经济体贸易水平变化对中国碳排放的联动影响,深入研究国际碳转移。结论表明:产业结构升级是中国碳减排的主要途径,经济增长对中国碳排放具有促增作用,特别地,由于当前国内碳减排技术水平的制约,技术进步的负向效应未能有效呈现;国际碳排放效应研究结果显示,美国的技术进步对中国碳减排有正向效应,而其经济增长、产业结构升级及贸易水平均对中国碳排放具有促增效应,进一步表明美国在国际贸易中向中国转移了碳排放。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 33 countries in the world from 1981 to 2012, a GVAR model was constructed to study the domestic and international scale, structure and technical effects of China's carbon emissions, and to analyze the linkage effects of changes in trade levels of other economies on China's carbon emissions. The conclusion is that the upgrading of industrial structure is the main way to reduce carbon emissions in China, and economic growth plays an important role in promoting carbon emissions in China, especially because of the restriction of domestic carbon abatement technology level. The negative effect of technological progress has not been effectively presented. The results of international carbon emission research show that the technological progress of the United States has a positive effect on China's carbon emission reduction, while its economic growth. The upgrading of the industrial structure and the level of trade have enhanced the efficiency of China's carbon emissions, which further indicates that the United States has transferred carbon emissions to China in international trade.
【作者单位】：浙江财经大学数据科学学院;浙江商业职业技术学院人文学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金规划项目“基于动态混合CGE模型的低碳交通政策效应仿真模拟研究”(15BTJ025) 浙江省自然科学基金面上项目“基于动态混合CGE模型的低碳交通政策仿真模拟及优化研究”(LY15G030016) 浙江省一流学科A类(浙江财经大学统计学)重点资助项目“行业碳排放效率的DEAm SBM多维测度及动态驱动机理研究”(2016)
【分类号】：F124;X196

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