中国“十三五”时期省际碳减排目标的效率分配

发布时间：2018-03-26 10:58

  本文选题：ZSG-SBM模型　切入点：碳减排目标　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年05期

【摘要】：首先,将"零和收益"的博弈思想引入到SBM模型中,构建了基于零和收益的碳减排SBM效率分配模型(ZSG-SBM)。然后,基于"十三五"规划中我国整体碳强度降低18%的减排约束,从经济增速和能源消费结构2个维度设置了"十三五"期间我国经济系统的4种发展情景,应用上述ZSG-SBM模型对碳减排目标进行了省际层面的效率分配。并通过对比各省经济发展现状和碳减排目标的分配结果,分析了各省的低碳经济发展路径。结果表明:采用ZSG-SBM模型对碳排放量进行效率分配后,30个省份的投入、产出指标实现了有效配置,碳排放效率到达效率前沿。政府基于"公平"导向的行政分配方案会造成一定程度的效率损失,基于ZSG-SBM模型的效率分配方案更符合低碳经济的长远发展要求。在碳强度约束的基础上,能源强度的再约束将迫使各省优化能源消费结构,从而提升我国整体碳排放效率。"十三五"时期,我国有16个省份的碳减排目标分配结果大于18%的平均标准,各省应根据自身资源禀赋、经济水平、产业结构和能源消费结构的现状选择差异的低碳经济发展道路。
[Abstract]:Firstly, the "zero-sum income" game theory is introduced into the SBM model, and a zero-sum profit based SBM efficiency allocation model for carbon emission reduction is constructed. Then, based on the emission reduction constraint of 18% reduction of the overall carbon intensity in China in the 13th Five-Year Plan, a ZSG-SBM model is constructed. From the two dimensions of economic growth and energy consumption structure, this paper sets up four development scenarios of China's economic system during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The efficiency distribution of carbon emission reduction target at provincial level is carried out by using the above ZSG-SBM model, and the distribution results of each province's economic development and carbon emission reduction target are compared. The development path of low-carbon economy in various provinces is analyzed. The results show that after the efficient allocation of carbon emissions by ZSG-SBM model, the input and output indicators of 30 provinces are effectively allocated. The efficiency of carbon emissions reaches the forefront of efficiency. The government's "fair" oriented administrative allocation scheme will result in a certain degree of efficiency loss. The efficiency distribution scheme based on ZSG-SBM model is more suitable for the long-term development of low-carbon economy. On the basis of carbon intensity constraint, energy intensity reconstraint will force provinces to optimize energy consumption structure. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, there were 16 provinces in China whose carbon emission reduction target allocation results exceeded the average standard of 18%. Each province should base on its own resource endowment and economic level. Industrial structure and energy consumption structure of the status quo choice of low-carbon economic development path.
【作者单位】： 南京财经大学会计学院;南京大学工程管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于公众认知视角的邻避项目环境风险评估与治理研究”(批准号:71671080),“互联网环境下考虑内生信息的邻避集群行为演化机理研究”(批准号:71571099) 国家自然科学青年基金项目“邻避行为的形成、演变及其冲突协调研究”(批准号:71301070) 江苏省社会科学基金“群体性邻避行为的度量及其冲突协调研究”(批准号:13SHC014) 全国统计科学研究项目“能源品阶视角下我国能源统计核算及其资产负债表编制”(批准号:2016LZ36)
【分类号】：X321
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本文编号：1667613