中国出口隐含碳排放影响因素研究——基于反事实法的分析

发布时间：2018-03-29 09:21

本文选题：出口隐含碳　切入点：影响因素　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年06期

【摘要】：中间消耗的"消耗规模与部门构成"是影响中国出口碳排放的重要因素。基于世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)1995—2015年数据,在部门归类与形式变换基础上,本文选取"单位产出碳排放量"、"完全消耗系数"与"出口值"为中国出口隐含碳排放的影响因子,构建"因子变动—反事实构造—效果评价"分析框架,借助规模指数与结构指数对影响因子的变化动态进行描述,并通过反事实构造对"因子变动"的影响效果进行评价。研究发现:"单位产出碳排放量"规模指数单调递减,Spearman偏度系数为右偏态,说明相比于意愿产出而言,非意愿产出"碳排放量"具有内在的规模不经济;"中间消耗"规模指数与碳偏向性指数在截面上始终处于高位水平,时序上出现了显著的递增趋势,说明中国单位出口值的中间消耗量偏大,消耗投入在结构上偏向于高碳部门,与"技术前沿国"美国存在显著"技术差距";"出口值"规模指数呈现"平缓扩张——快速攀升——V型震荡"的阶段性特征,结构指数经历了以基期2002年为顶点、"先下降、后上升、再平稳"的变化轨迹,说明"出口值"作为最具弹性的影响因子,受"亚洲金融危机"、"加入世界贸易组织"与"美国次债危机"等外部冲击的影响明显,对出口碳排放的推动作用存在伸缩性与阶段性差异。从"因子变动"影响效果来看,中国产出、中间消耗与出口的部门构成具有内生关联,均显著偏向于高碳部门,对出口隐含碳排放增长产生了叠加性的"正向"扩张效应。基于此,本文认为,总量控制与结构优化的视角需从产品环节向中间消耗环节扩展,现阶段应深化要素市场改革,加速要素禀赋升级,借力要素价格机制与差别化产业规制政策,从上游环节抑制出口碳排放的输入来源。
[Abstract]:The "consumption scale and sector composition" of intermediate consumption is an important factor affecting China's export carbon emissions. Based on the world input-output database (WIOD) data for 1995-2015, based on the classification and transformation of sectors, In this paper, "carbon emissions per unit output", "total consumption coefficient" and "export value" are selected as the influence factors of China's export implied carbon emissions, and the analytical framework of "factor change-counterfactual structure-effect evaluation" is constructed. With the help of scale index and structure index, the dynamic changes of influence factors are described. The effect of "factor change" is evaluated by counterfactual structure. It is found that the coefficient of Spearman bias is right skewness in the scale index of "carbon emissions per unit output", which shows that compared with willing output, the coefficient of Spearman bias is right skewness. The "carbon emissions" of involuntary output have intrinsic scale diseconomies, the "intermediate consumption" scale index and the carbon bias index are always at a high level in the cross-section, and there is a significant increasing trend in time series. This shows that the intermediate consumption of the unit export value of China is on the high side, and the consumption input is structurally biased towards the high-carbon sector. There is a significant "technology gap" between the "technology frontier country" and the United States, and the "export value" scale index presents the stage characteristic of "gentle expansion-rapid climbing -V-shaped shock", and the structural index has experienced the peak of the base period 2002, "first declining, then rising," The stable track of change shows that "export value", as the most flexible influence factor, is obviously affected by external shocks such as "Asian financial crisis", "accession to the World Trade Organization" and "US sub-prime debt crisis." From the effect of "factor change", China's output, intermediate consumption and export sector composition have an endogenous correlation, and are significantly biased to high-carbon sector, the impact of the impact of the impact of "factor change" on China's output, intermediate consumption and export sector composition has an endogenous relationship, and has a significant bias towards the high-carbon sector. There is a superposition "positive" expansion effect on the export implied carbon emission growth. Based on this, this paper holds that the perspective of total quantity control and structural optimization should be extended from product to intermediate consumption, and the reform of factor market should be deepened at this stage. Accelerating the upgrading of factor endowment, borrowing factor price mechanism and differential industrial regulation policy, restraining the input source of export carbon emissions from upstream link.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心;
【基金】：2015四川循环经济研究中心年度课题重大项目“循环经济定量评估方法的实证研究”(批准号:XHJJ-1502) 国家社会科学基金项目“推进西南民族地区森林碳汇扶贫的政策研究”(批准号:15BJY093) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“中国出口隐含碳排放影响因素研究——基于反事实法的分析”(批准号:JBK1707016)
【分类号】：F752.62;X196

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