空气质量与公共健康:以森林吸收烟粉尘为例

发布时间：2018-04-09 06:05

本文选题：固体排放　切入点：公共健康　出处：《林业科学》2017年08期

【摘要】：【目的】以森林吸收烟粉尘为例,实证检验烟粉尘对居民呼吸系统相关疾病的影响,定量分析空气污染与公共健康的关系。【方法】首先,沿用文献回顾阐述大气污染引发呼吸系统相关疾病,森林可以通过减少空气污染物来影响人体健康的相关研究;其次,基于我国30个省(市、区)7年的面板数据,分别通过最小二乘法(OLS)、面板模型、3SLS估计烟粉尘对公共健康的影响;第三,着重采用3SLS方法克服颗粒物排放的内生性问题,从而更加准确地评价环境污染对公共健康的负面影响,有效解释地区间健康水平异质性;第四,采用不同排放物作为工具变量对估计结果进行稳健性检验,以保证结论的可信度。【结果】1)OLS估计显示,烟粉尘对公共健康的影响非常显著,烟粉尘排放量每增加1%,万人中死于肺癌和呼吸性疾病的人数相应增加0.568%和0.488%。2)随机效应模型(RE)估计显示,烟粉尘对肺癌死亡人数的显著性水平有所降低,在10%水平下显著为正,对呼吸系统疾病的死亡人数影响非常显著,烟粉尘排放量每增加1%,二者死亡人数分别增加0.207%和0.467%。3)采用外生的病虫害发生面积作为森林面积的工具变量来解决烟粉尘排放的内生性问题。基于工具变量的三阶段最小二乘估计(3SLS)显示,森林面积显著影响烟粉尘排放水平,森林面积每增加1%,烟粉尘排放量大约降低0.884%;烟粉尘排放量每增加1%,万人中死于肺癌人数将增加0.777%,死于呼吸系统疾病的人数将增加0.704%,并且均高于用OLS、随机效应模型估计出的值,说明后2种方法会低估空气污染对公共健康的影响。4)人均GDP和人口密度正向作用于居民公共健康水平,人均医疗支出对居民公共健康水平在1%水平下显著为负,即人均医疗支出每增加1%,万人中肺癌及呼吸系统疾病死亡人数将分别降低0.362%和0.543%。【结论】鉴于森林通过吸收烟粉尘可提高公共健康水平,为了进一步提高公共健康水平,除了通过法律和强制措施从源头治理污染外,还需要大力提倡植树造林、提高森林覆盖率、扩大烟粉尘吸收能力强的树种面积、有效提高病虫害防治水平等。
[Abstract]:[objective] to study the effect of smoke dust on respiratory diseases and analyze the relationship between air pollution and public health.Following the review of the literature on respiratory system related diseases caused by air pollution, forest can affect human health by reducing air pollutants. Secondly, based on panel data from 30 provinces (municipalities and districts) in China for 7 years,The least square method and panel model are used to estimate the impact of smoke dust on public health. Thirdly, the 3SLS method is used to overcome the endogenetic problem of particulate matter emissions, so as to evaluate the negative effects of environmental pollution on public health more accurately.It can effectively explain the heterogeneity of health level among different regions. Fourthly, we use different emissions as tool variables to test the robustness of the estimated results to ensure the reliability of the conclusions. [results] 1)OLS estimates show that,The impact of smoke dust on public health is very significant. For every 1 percent increase in smoke dust emissions, the number of deaths from lung cancer and respiratory diseases in thousands of people increases correspondingly by 0.568% and 0.4880.2.) Stochastic effect model REE estimates show that,Smoke dust had a significant effect on the death toll of lung cancer, which was significantly positive at 10% level, and had a significant effect on the death toll of respiratory diseases.For each increase of smoke dust emissions, the number of deaths increased by 0.207% and 0.467.3 respectively) the exogenous pest and disease occurrence area was used as the tool variable of forest area to solve the endogenous problem of smoke dust emission.The three-stage least squares estimation based on tool variables showed that forest area significantly affected the emission level of smoke dust.For every increase in forest area, the emission of smoke dust will be reduced by approximately 0.8844.When the discharge of smoke dust increases by 1 percent, the number of deaths from lung cancer among 10,000 people will increase by 0.77777, and the number of deaths from respiratory diseases will increase by 0.7044.It will be higher than the values estimated by the OLS- random effect model.The latter two methods can underestimate the impact of air pollution on public health. 4) the per capita GDP and population density positively affect the public health level of residents, and the per capita medical expenditure is significantly negative at the level of 1% of the residents' public health.That is, for every increase in per capita medical expenditure, the number of deaths from lung cancer and respiratory diseases will be reduced by 0.362% and 0.543% respectively among the ten thousand people. [conclusion] in view of the fact that forests can raise the level of public health by absorbing smoke and dust, in order to further improve the level of public health,In addition to controlling pollution from the source through laws and compulsory measures, it is necessary to promote afforestation, increase forest coverage, expand the area of tree species with strong dust absorption capacity, and effectively improve the level of pest and disease control.
【作者单位】：中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所;
【基金】：浙江省省院合作林业科技项目“森林疗养基地认证标准与指标体系研究”(2016SY17) 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(CAFYBB2017QA020)
【分类号】：R122

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