国外学术界对《巴黎协定》的评价及履约前景分析

发布时间：2018-04-12 12:20

  本文选题：《巴黎协定》 + 国际环境智库　； 参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年09期

【摘要】：2016年《巴黎协定》的正式生效是全球环境治理的重要里程碑,是国际社会在应对气候变化的艰难进程中迈出的重要一步,标志着全球环境治理从此进入履约阶段。本文基于宾夕法尼亚大学智库与公民社会项目(TTCSP)公布的《2015年全球智库指数报告》,选取其中排名前十位的国际环境智库的研究报告和环境领域中代表性学者的相关论文,对国外学术界有关《巴黎协定》履约前景的分析进行了系统梳理,并对此做出简要评述。文章在肯定《巴黎协定》有力推进国际气候治理进程的同时,也指出在新的国际形势之下,尤其是在英国正式启动脱欧进程和特朗普新任美国总统后,其履约过程中更是存在着协定之内和协定之外的众多挑战和不确定性,本文的基本结论如下:首先,协定之内面临着协定缔约方国内批准程序上的挑战;国家自主贡献的实现与发展中国家能力建设;2℃温升目标的实现前景;审评和盘点的效力评估;碳市场机制能否有效运行。其次,协定之外面临着英国脱欧的潜在气候政策变化及影响;美国气候政策的可能变化及其影响。基于对以上智库报告和相关研究论文的分析,笔者对《巴黎协定》的履约前景得出几点看法:(1)正视国际气候合作的机遇与挑战;(2)对具体议题的落实需充满信心;(3)理性冷静看待英美气候政策的可能变化;(4)鼓励环境类国际组织之外的非国家行为体展开通力合作。对此,我们应正视履约中的挑战与不确定性,做好充分的应对之策,确保履约进程的顺利完成。总之,《巴黎协定》的履约前景不容乐观,国际社会任重道远。
[Abstract]:< > the 2016 Paris agreement came into effect is an important milepost in global environmental governance, is an important step towards the international community in the difficult process of climate change in the sign of global environmental governance entered the performance stage. In this paper, University of Pennsylvania think-tank and civil society based on the project (TTCSP) announced the global think tank index report > <2015 related papers, the representative scholars study selected among the top ten of the international environment and think tanks in the field of the environment, the analysis on the "Paris agreement > performance prospects in foreign academic circles systematically, and this article will make a brief review on the Paris agreement." > promote the international climate governance process at the same time also, pointed out that under the new international situation, especially from Europe and Trump officially launched the process of the new president of the United States in the UK, the compliance process is There is agreement within and outside the agreement many challenges and uncertainties, the basic conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, facing the agreement within the parties to the agreement on the challenges of domestic ratification procedures; the national independent contribution of implementation and capacity building in developing countries; realize the prospect of 2 DEG C temperature rise goals; inventory review and assess the validity of the carbon market; the mechanism can run effectively. Secondly, the agreement outside facing the potential climate policy change and influence of a British exit; may change US climate policy and its influence. The analysis report of think tanks and related papers based on the performance of the "Paris agreement" prospects that several points of view: (1) to face the opportunities and challenges international cooperation on climate change; (2) the specific issues need to be implemented with confidence; (3) changes may look cool climate policy common reason; (4) encourage environmental class international organizations outside The state actors are going to cooperate. In this regard, we should face up to the challenges and uncertainties in the performance and make full responses to ensure the successful completion of the performance process. In conclusion, the prospect of the implementation of the Paris agreement is not optimistic, and the international community has a long way to go.

【作者单位】： 北京大学国际关系学院;
【基金】：北京大学-乐施会合作项目“后马拉喀什国际气候治理机制创新研究”(批准号:BO2016)
【分类号】：P467;X321
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本文编号：1739733