生态文明阈值和绿值二步测度:指标-指数耦合链方法

发布时间：2018-04-25 10:09

本文选题：生态文明测度 + 评价指标　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年09期

【摘要】：拟破解生态文明测度和评价的现存难题:在指标选取方面,评价目标模糊,指标筛选的主观性强,缺乏结构化方法,导致指标泛化,与一般环境经济评价混淆;在测度标尺方面,无法确定生态文明阈值,对不同文明阶段用同一把尺子去衡量,导致一些非生态文明区域的排名反而靠前;在应用价值方面,综合指标值失去生态经济意义,只是一个抽象的排名数字,导致测度结果不便于理解和运用。为此,依据文明演化的共生理论创立指标-指数耦合链方法,用以导出生态文明测度的阈值和绿值二步指数。依次运用扎根理论法、PSIR及SEM结构模型、足迹家族法、Lotka-Volterra模型等工具,构建从生态文明的指标体系到二步指数的结构化耦合链。全过程始终聚焦生态文明的本质属性——产业与生态的互利共生性:以定性科学属性为出发点,以人与自然复合系统的结构模型为纽带,以生态文明阈值和绿值二步指数定量模型为归宿点。其中,阈值用产业受力指数、生态受力指数和共生度指数3项指数进行衡量,合称为阈值指数;而绿值用1项综合反映区域产业与生态的总量、共生程度和均衡程度的绿值指数进行衡量。据此进行区域生态文明的二步测度。第一步,基于阈值指数的阶段或资格判定:通过产业与生态的共生性,考量被测区域是否进入生态文明门槛,"未入门"区域处于哪一个文明阶段。第二步,基于绿值指数的水平判定:通过产业与生态的互利共生程度,考量"入门"区域的生态文明水平。研究表明,指标-指数耦合链方法不仅可以有效克服单纯指标体系综合法或指数函数法的缺陷和难点,而且能够将两者的长处结合起来。如此,不仅能够避免生态文明测度结果与物质文明"成正比"的弊端,而且能够通过从生态文明二步指数回溯至指标体系的逆向解耦,分析出导致生态文明问题的根本原因,便于提出切中肯綮的对策。
[Abstract]:To solve the existing problems in the measurement and evaluation of ecological civilization: in the aspect of index selection, the objective of evaluation is fuzzy, the subjectivity of index selection is strong, and the lack of structured method leads to the generalization of indicators and confusion with general environmental and economic evaluation; In the aspect of measuring scale, the threshold of ecological civilization can not be determined, and the same ruler is used to measure the different stages of civilization, which leads to the top ranking of some non-ecological civilization regions; in terms of application value, the comprehensive index value loses the ecological and economic significance. Just an abstract ranking number, resulting in measurement results are not easy to understand and use. Therefore, based on the symbiosis theory of civilization evolution, the index-exponential coupling chain method is established to derive the threshold value and green two-step index of ecological civilization measure. In order to construct the structural coupling chain from the index system of ecological civilization to the two-step index, the rooting theory method and the SEM structural model, the footprint family method and Lotka-Volterra model are used to construct the structural coupling chain from the ecological civilization index system to the two-step index. The whole process has always focused on the essential attribute of ecological civilization-the mutualism of industry and ecology: taking the qualitative and scientific attribute as the starting point, and taking the structural model of the compound system of man and nature as the link. The ecological civilization threshold and green two-step index quantitative model are taken as the home point. Among them, the threshold value is measured by three indexes: industrial stress index, ecological stress index and symbiosis index, and the green value reflects the total amount of regional industry and ecology with one item. The green value index of symbiotic degree and equilibrium degree is measured. According to this, the two-step measurement of regional ecological civilization is carried out. The first step is based on the stage of threshold index or qualification determination: through the symbiosis between industry and ecology, the author considers whether the region under test has entered the threshold of ecological civilization, and which civilization stage the "unentry" region is in. The second step is based on the level of green value index: through the degree of mutual benefit symbiosis between industry and ecology, the level of ecological civilization in "entry" area is considered. The results show that the index-exponential coupling chain method can not only overcome the shortcomings and difficulties of the simple index system synthesis method or exponential function method, but also combine the advantages of the two methods. In this way, it can not only avoid the drawback that the measuring result of ecological civilization is directly proportional to material civilization, but also analyze the root cause of the problem of ecological civilization by tracing back from the two-step index of ecological civilization to the reverse decoupling of index system. It is convenient to put forward the countermeasures that hit the key point.
【作者单位】：南京林业大学经济管理学院;南京林业大学环境与发展系统工程研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“生态文明的阈值和水平双指数测度方法”(批准号:71673136)
【分类号】：X196;X22

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