中国省际贸易中的隐含碳流动及其政策启示

发布时间：2018-05-06 11:03

本文选题：省际贸易 + 投入产出模型　；参考：《北京建筑大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：贸易为区域之间的二氧化碳排放转移创建了相应的传输机制,伴随贸易所产生的不仅有资本和货物的流动,而且还包括生产过程中所隐含的碳排放的流动。随着贸易规模的不断扩大和能源使用需求的增长,贸易中的隐含碳流动对中国二氧化碳排放的影响日益显著,应该看到,贸易的快速发展是以严峻的环境污染形势为代价的。为了应对当前严峻的环境危机,中国制定了2020年和2030年碳排放的总量和强度控制目标,国家目标已下达至省级层面,因此必须合理确定各省区的碳减排责任,一方面需考虑各个地区实际的碳排放量,另一方面,伴随产品和服务贸易产生的省区之间碳排放的空间转移也是必须要考虑的重要因素。本文基于国内外贸易隐含碳的研究成果,用定量分析和空间分析的方法对我国30省区市的隐含碳以及省区之间贸易隐含碳排放转移在不同时期的变动情况作出了研究与分析,并提出了促进我国碳减排的政策建议,主要研究结论如下:(1)2002年至2010年,中国碳足迹数量上逐步增加,空间布局上呈现出明显的“东—中—西”依次降低的梯度发展格局,碳足迹总量较高的省份多为经济发展程度较快的省份,主要分布于我国东部沿海区域,中西部地区碳足迹总量较低。(2)人均碳排放量不断攀升,由2002年的3.44吨CO2上升到2010年的5.98吨CO2,增幅达74%,且人均碳足迹的区域差异逐步缩小,与之相反,我国碳排放强度呈现下降趋势。2002年至2010年中国的隐含碳排放强度空间分布变化较小,三个阶段的共同规律是碳排放强度最高的地方集中在北方地区,其次是中部地区,东部和南部沿海地区最低。(3)中国省际贸易隐含碳转移规模大比例增加,省区之间产业贸易往来对各省的隐含碳排放有显著的影响。2002—2010年,16个省份的省际贸易隐含碳差额模式保持不变。其中,黑龙江、云南、上海等9个省区一直是省际贸易隐含碳赤字,辽宁、江苏、吉林、重庆、浙江、湖北、四川7个省区一直是省际贸易隐含碳盈余。(4)省际间贸易隐含碳排放转移呈现明显的阶段性特征。2002年中国隐含碳流动规律是由南部沿海、京津区域和东北地区向北部沿海、西北地区和中部地区转移;2002年-2007年,中国各省贸易隐含碳主要由北部沿海、东部沿海及东北地区、西北地区向东部沿海和京津地区转移;2007年-2010年,中国碳排放转移的空间分布格局发生了显著的变化,隐含碳开始向中西部地区转移,该阶段隐含碳的主要流入地区是西北和西南地区。
[Abstract]:Trade creates a corresponding transport mechanism for the transfer of carbon dioxide emissions between regions, which is accompanied not only by the flow of capital and goods, but also by the flow of carbon emissions implied in the production process. With the expansion of trade scale and the increase of energy demand, the impact of implied carbon flow in trade on China's carbon dioxide emissions is increasingly significant. It should be seen that the rapid development of trade is at the cost of severe environmental pollution. In response to the current severe environmental crisis, China has set targets for the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2030. The national target has been reached at the provincial level, so it is necessary to reasonably determine the responsibilities of the provinces and regions for reducing carbon emissions. On the one hand, it is necessary to consider the actual carbon emissions from different regions, on the other hand, the spatial transfer of carbon emissions between provinces and regions that accompany the trade in products and services is also an important factor to be considered. Based on the research results of implied carbon in trade at home and abroad, this paper studies and analyzes the change of implied carbon in 30 provinces, autonomous regions and cities of China and the transfer of implied carbon emissions between provinces and autonomous regions in different periods by means of quantitative analysis and spatial analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: from 2002 to 2010, the amount of China's carbon footprint gradually increased, and the spatial distribution showed a gradient pattern of "east-center-west" decreasing in turn. The provinces with higher total carbon footprint are the provinces with faster economic development, mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas of China, and the total carbon footprint in the central and western regions is low. From 3.44 tons of CO2 in 2002 to 5.98 tons of CO2 in 2010, an increase of 74%, and the regional differences in the per capita carbon footprint gradually narrowed. The spatial distribution of implied carbon emission intensity in China from 2002 to 2010 is small. The common rule of the three stages is that the highest carbon emission intensity is concentrated in the northern region, followed by the central region. The eastern and southern coastal areas are the lowest.) the scale of implied carbon transfer in China's inter-provincial trade has increased by a large proportion. Industrial trade between provinces has a significant impact on the implied carbon emissions of each province. From 2002 to 2010 the implied carbon balance model of interprovincial trade in 16 provinces remains unchanged. Among them, nine provinces, such as Heilongjiang, Yunnan, Shanghai, and so on, have always been the implied carbon deficit in inter-provincial trade, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Jilin, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Hubei, The implied carbon emissions transfer of inter-provincial trade in Sichuan Province has always been the implied carbon surplus of inter-provincial trade. (4) the implied carbon emissions transfer in inter-provincial trade shows obvious stage characteristics. In 2002, the law of implied carbon flow in China was from the southern coast, the Beijing-Tianjin region and the northeast region to the northern coast. From 2002 to 2007, the trade implied carbon in the provinces of China was mainly transferred from the northern coast, the eastern coast and the northeast region, the northwest region to the eastern coast and Beijing and Tianjin areas; from 2007 to 2010, Significant changes have taken place in the spatial distribution pattern of carbon emission transfer in China. The implied carbon began to transfer to the central and western regions. The main inflow areas of implied carbon in this stage are northwest and southwest regions.
【学位授予单位】：北京建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724;X196

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