南四湖流域水环境质量与经济发展关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 08:25

本文选题：南四湖流域 + 水环境　；参考：《济南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着南四湖流域经济的不断发展,流域水环境质量发生了显著的变化。本文利用南四湖流域2001-2015年间水环境与经济发展指标数据,分析了流域典型污染物排放量和经济发展变化趋势,并建立了南四湖流域水环境-经济协调发展评价指标体系。以主成分分析原理和环境经济协调度理论为基础,建立了南四湖流域水环境-经济系统协调度模型,并对南四湖流域各市水环境-经济系统协调度变化进行分析。最后基于对环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证分析,探究南四湖流域水环境质量与经济发展之间的关系,并根据研究结果提出了水环境与经济协调发展建议。主要研究成果如下:(1)南四湖流域生活废水排放量在2001-2011年低于工业废水排放量,而2011年之后超过工业废水排放量,成为南四湖流域水环境污染的主要来源。生活污水排放量呈现不断增长的趋势,且增幅越来越大,而工业废水排放量在2001-2010年不断增加,2010年之后开始逐渐减少。(2)2001-2015年济宁市水环境与经济协调度在初级协调到高级协调之间变化,水环境-经济系统协调度总体上都处于协调发展阶段;枣庄市水环境与经济发展协调度经历了从中级协调到高级协调,而后不断恶化至濒临失调,近年来又回到中高级协调的“V”型变化趋势;菏泽市水环境-经济发展协调度经历了从轻度失调到趋近协调,而后又倒退到轻度失调的状态的倒“V”型变化过程。(3)对比济宁、枣庄和菏泽三个市的经济发展与水环境质量变化趋势曲线,可以看出济宁市和枣庄市的水环境-经济系统协调度明显高于菏泽市。菏泽市近年来经济发展非常迅猛,造成水环境质量快速下降,污染逐步加重,属于经济优先,水环境滞后型。(4)各水环境指标与人均GDP的环境库兹涅茨曲线实证分析中,只有工业废水排放量与人均GDP的拟合曲线呈现显著的倒“U”型曲线,且工业废水排放量的转折点出现在人均GDP达到4832.29美元,对应时间为2012年。工业COD排放量和工业氨氮排放量随着经济的增长呈现不断下降的趋势。(5)生活废水排放量随着人均GDP的增长呈现上升趋势,对应的生活氨氮排放量也是处于上升趋势。生活废水排放量和生活氨氮排放量目前处于环境库兹涅茨曲线的前半部分,还没有达到拐点。可是如果不及时采取有效的控制措施,未来有可能对南四湖水环境造成严重的危害。
[Abstract]:With the economic development of the Nansihu River basin, the water environment quality of the basin has changed significantly. Based on the index data of water environment and economic development in Nansi Lake Basin from 2001 to 2015, this paper analyzes the discharge amount of typical pollutants and the trend of economic development, and establishes an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of water environment and economy in Nansi Lake basin. Based on the principle of principal component analysis (PCA) and the theory of environmental and economic coordination, a model of coordination degree between water environment and economic system in Nansi Lake basin is established, and the variation of coordination degree of water environment and economic system in each city of Nansi Lake basin is analyzed. Finally, based on the empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve, the relationship between the water environmental quality and the economic development in the Nansihu Basin is explored, and suggestions for the coordinated development of the water environment and the economy are put forward according to the results of the study. The main research results are as follows: (1) the discharge of domestic wastewater in Nansihu Basin was lower than that of industrial wastewater in 2001-2011, but after 2011, it exceeded the discharge of industrial wastewater, which became the main source of water pollution in Nansihu Lake Basin. Domestic sewage discharge shows a growing trend, and the increase is increasing. However, the discharge of industrial wastewater increased from 2001 to 2010, and began to decrease gradually after 2010. The degree of coordination between the water environment and the economy in Jining from 2001 to 2015 changed from primary coordination to high-level coordination. The degree of coordination between water environment and economic system is generally at the stage of coordination and development; the degree of coordination between water environment and economic development in Zaozhuang City has experienced from intermediate coordination to high-level coordination, and then continues to deteriorate to be on the verge of maladjustment. In recent years, the trend of "V" type of coordination has been returned, and the degree of coordination between water environment and economic development in Heze City has experienced from mild maladjustment to approaching coordination. And then retrograde to the inverted "V" type change process of mild maladjustment.) comparing the trend curves of economic development and water environment quality in three cities, Jining, Zaozhuang and Heze, It can be seen that the coordination degree of water environment-economic system in Jining and Zaozhuang is obviously higher than that in Heze. In recent years, the economic development of Heze City is very rapid, resulting in the rapid decline of water environment quality, the gradual aggravation of pollution, which belongs to the economic priority, and the water environment lagging type. 4) in the empirical analysis of each water environment index and the environmental Kuznets curve of per capita GDP, Only the fitting curve of industrial wastewater discharge and per capita GDP showed a significant "U" curve, and the turning point of industrial wastewater discharge occurred when the per capita GDP reached 4832.29 US dollars, corresponding time was 2012. Industrial COD emissions and industrial ammonia-nitrogen emissions showed a decreasing trend with the economic growth. 5) the domestic wastewater emissions increased with the increase of per capita GDP, and the corresponding ammonia-nitrogen emissions were also in an upward trend. The discharge of domestic wastewater and ammonia nitrogen is in the first half of the environmental Kuznets curve and has not reached the inflection point. However, if effective control measures are not taken in time, it may cause serious harm to the water environment of Nansihu Lake in the future.
【学位授予单位】：济南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;X52

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