基于系统动力学的内蒙古废水排放量预测分析

发布时间：2018-06-10 06:18

本文选题：废水排放量 + 系统动力学　；参考：《数学的实践与认识》2017年22期

【摘要】：随着经济社会的发展,内蒙古废水排放日益增多,过量的废水排放会导致生态系统的衰退,最终影响到人类自身的生存环境和安全,因此,合理地预测出废水排放量对于控制废水的排放具有重要意义.应用系统动力学的模型和方法构建了内蒙古废水排放系统,通过参数的设定定量地预测出2016年到2025年内蒙古废水排放情况.预测结果显示:在9%的工业废水治理累计投资增长率情况下2016年到2025年内蒙古废水排放总量逐年增加,但是增加速度有所放缓,2025年废水排放总量达到13.22亿吨;生活污水排放量逐年增加,2025年达到12.03亿吨;工业废水排放量逐年下降,2025年下降到1.18亿吨.如果要使得工业废水排放量下降,需要每年的工业废水治理累计投资增长率至少为6%.
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, the discharge of waste water in Inner Mongolia is increasing day by day. The excessive discharge of waste water will lead to the decline of the ecosystem and ultimately affect the living environment and safety of human beings themselves. It is important to reasonably predict the discharge of wastewater to control the discharge of wastewater. The wastewater discharge system of Inner Mongolia was constructed by using the model and method of system dynamics, and the waste water discharge from 2016 to 2025 was quantitatively predicted by setting the parameters. The forecast results show that under the condition of 9% cumulative investment growth rate of industrial wastewater treatment, the total amount of waste water discharged from 2016 to 2025 in Inner Mongolia increased year by year, but the increase rate slowed down, and the total amount of wastewater discharge reached 1.322 billion tons in 2025. The discharge of domestic sewage increased year by year, reaching 1.203 billion tons in 2025, and the discharge of industrial wastewater decreased year by year, to 118 million tons in 2025. In order to reduce the discharge of industrial wastewater, the cumulative investment growth rate of industrial wastewater treatment is at least 6% per year.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院;
【分类号】：X703

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