基于Monte Carlo模拟法对水源水体中微囊藻毒素的健康风险评估

发布时间：2018-06-20 11:36

本文选题：微囊藻毒素 + @Risk.　；参考：《环境科学》2017年05期

【摘要】：调查水源水体中微囊藻毒素MCs(MC-RR、MC-LR和MC-YR)的污染情况,结合调查情况应用蒙特卡洛法(Monte Carlo)模拟量化人群通过饮水途径摄入微囊藻毒素的风险.在珠江西航道沿线设置5个采样点,在2016年1~6月期间共采集90份水样,根据国标(GB/T 20466-2006)推荐的HPLC方法检测水体中的微囊藻毒素,运用专业风险评估软件@Risk7.0,构建非参数概率评估模型,对通过饮水途径摄入微囊藻毒素(暴露)风险进行概率评估.对随机采集90份水源水体中微囊藻毒素MCs质量浓度检测值进行分布拟合,并运用Chi-Squared、Anderson-Darling、Kolmogorov-Smirnov这3种统计方法进行拟合度检验,根据3种评估拟合结果,确定最佳拟合分布模型.结果表明,在检测的90个水样品中,MC-RR的检出率最高,达到51.11%,质量浓度范围为0.001 7~0.386 3μg·L~(-1);其次为MC-LR和MC-YR,检出率分别是47.78%和21.11%,质量浓度范围分别是0.028 5~0.279 6μg·L~(-1)和0.003 0~0.136 2μg·L~(-1),水源水体中3种微囊藻毒素以MC-RR为主,最大检出质量浓度为0.386 3μg·L~(-1),MC-YR的含量最低.采用软件@Risk7.0分布拟合结果显示,MC-LR质量浓度最适的拟合分布为Ext Value Min模型(0.113 91,0.098 462),MC-RR质量浓度最适的拟合分布为Logistic(0.058 064,0.053 044).健康风险评估表明,MC-LR对人体健康危害的风险高于MC-RR的风险,儿童比成人更易于受到MCs污染的威胁.MC-LR对儿童健康危害的致癌年风险数值大于美国环保署(USEPA)推荐的最大可接受风险水平1×10-4;MC-LR对成人的致癌暴露年风险数值大于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的最大可接受风险水平5×10-5,表明水源水体中的MCs对人体健康存在潜在的危害,有必要加强饮用水源水体的保护与监控,为有效控制水源地水质污染和更好地保障人民健康奠定基础.
[Abstract]:The contamination of microcystins MCs (MC-RR, MC-LR and MC-YR) in water source water was investigated. The risk of drinking water intake by Monte C Lofa (Monte Carlo) was used to quantify the risk of microcystin intake by Monte C Lofa (Monte Carlo). 90 samples were collected during the 1~6 month of 2016, according to national standard (GB/T). 20466-2006) the recommended HPLC method was used to detect microcystins in the water body, and the professional risk assessment software @Risk7.0 was used to construct a nonparametric probability assessment model to assess the risk of microcystin (exposure) intake through drinking water. The distribution of microcystin MCs concentration in 90 water sources was distributed. Fitting, and using the 3 statistical methods of Chi-Squared, Anderson-Darling, Kolmogorov-Smirnov to test the fitting degree and determine the best fitting distribution model according to the 3 kinds of fitting results. The results show that in the 90 samples of water, the detection rate of MC-RR is the highest, reaching 51.11%, the mass concentration range is 0.001 7~0.386 3 G. L~ (-1), and the second is the next. For MC-LR and MC-YR, the detection rates were 47.78% and 21.11% respectively, the range of mass concentration was 0.028 5~0.279 6 mu L~ (-1) and 0.003 0~0.136 2 mu g. L~ (-1). 3 microcystins in water source were dominated by MC-RR, and the maximum detection mass concentration was 0.3863 micron G. The optimum fitting distribution of R concentration is Ext Value Min model (0.113 91,0.098 462), and the optimum fitting distribution of MC-RR mass concentration is Logistic (0.058 064,0.053 044). Health risk assessment shows that the risk of MC-LR to human health is higher than MC-RR, and children are more susceptible to MCs pollution than those of adults. The annual risk of cancer risk is greater than the maximum acceptable risk level recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) (USEPA). The annual risk value of MC-LR for adult cancer exposure is greater than the maximum acceptable risk level recommended by the International Commission on radiation protection (ICRP) by 5 * 10-5, indicating that the MCs in the water source is potentially harmful to human health, and it is necessary. It is necessary to strengthen the protection and monitoring of drinking water sources, laying a solid foundation for effective control of water pollution and better protection of people's health.
【作者单位】：暨南大学生命科学技术学院;暨南大学应急管理研究中心;
【基金】：暨南大学应急管理研究中心重大项目(JD2015008) 广东省科技计划项目(2009B011300003)
【分类号】：X824

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