基于CGE模型的电动汽车与CCS推广政策对能源经济的影响

发布时间：2018-06-30 03:59

本文选题：可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型 + 电动汽车　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球变暖,恶劣的环境等问题的日益加剧,节能减排逐渐演变为人类当前面临的重大环境问题之一。作为当今世上最大的发展中国家,最大的排放国,中国面临着越来越大的减排压力。为了经济软着陆、降低碳排放,中国不得不加快低碳经济的脚步,推广电动车将是一个降低能耗和二氧化碳排放的重要手段。根据国务院印发的《节能与新能源汽车产业发展规划(2012—2020年)》,到2020年,纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车生产能力达200万辆、累计产销量超过500万辆。国际形势、国内政策都体现了本文比较现实的研究意义。本文构建了一个递归的中国能源环境动态的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,用以分析推广电动汽车以及相关的政策和技术,如电厂的碳捕集与封存(CCS)技术政策的经济-能源-环境影响。本文创新地以调整外生变量等方法在CGE模型中模拟中国电动汽车的相关数量,并根据不同的政策背景与实施的可能性,建立了5个推广电动汽车的模拟情景。以期为中国政策的制定提供理论支持。结果显示:在基准水平下的推广政策配合CCS技术可以有效降低碳排放和缓解经济损失。虽然推广电动汽车会对经济造成一定的损失,但是碳排放峰值将在2030年前出现,将迎合2014年的《中美气候变化联合声明》中国碳减排目标。高水平的推广政策比基准水平的推广政策在降低二氧化碳排放方面表现更加出色,但是造成的经济损失也是难以弥补的。CCS技术在电动车推广和全国碳交易市场启动的大背景下,在保护能源生产部门这一方面扮演了重要的角色:降低了GDP的损失,降低了碳排放,但是对降低我国石油依赖性并没有显著的影响。作为一个降低碳交易成本的配套选项,在电动车政策推广的过程中CCS对碳价有着强烈的影响,精炼石油行业的保护与转型是值得考虑的一大问题。综上,本文认为,在全国碳交易市场启动的前提下,以基准水平配合热电厂的CCS技术是一个既保护经济,又能有效节能减排的的政策组合。
[Abstract]:With the global warming and the worsening of environmental problems, energy saving and emission reduction has gradually become one of the major environmental problems facing mankind. As the world's largest developing country and the largest emitter, China is under increasing pressure to reduce emissions. In order to achieve a soft landing and reduce carbon emissions, China will have to accelerate the pace of a low-carbon economy, and the promotion of electric vehicles will be an important means of reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. According to the Energy Saving and New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2012-2020) issued by the State Council, by 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will reach 2 million and the cumulative production and sales volume will exceed 5 million. The international situation and domestic policies reflect the practical significance of this paper. In this paper, a recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of energy environment dynamics in China is constructed to analyze the promotion of electric vehicles and related policies and technologies. For example, power plant carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology policy economic-energy-environmental impact. This paper innovatively simulates the number of electric vehicles in China by adjusting exogenous variables in the CGE model. According to the different policy background and the possibility of implementation, five simulation scenarios of promoting electric vehicles are established. In order to provide theoretical support for the formulation of Chinese policy. The results show that the policies combined with CCS technology can effectively reduce carbon emissions and mitigate economic losses. Although the introduction of electric vehicles will cost the economy, the peak carbon emissions will occur by 2030, catering to the 2014 Sino-U.S. Joint statement on Climate change, China's carbon reduction target. The high level of promotion policy is better than the benchmark level in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, but the economic loss caused by it is also difficult to make up. CCS technology has been launched in the context of electric vehicle promotion and the national carbon trading market. It plays an important role in protecting the energy production sector: it reduces the loss of GDP and carbon emissions, but it has no significant effect on reducing China's oil dependence. As an option to reduce the cost of carbon trading CCS has a strong influence on carbon price in the process of electric vehicle policy promotion. The protection and transformation of refining oil industry is a big problem to be considered. On the premise of starting the national carbon trading market, the CCS technology based on the standard level and thermal power plant is a policy combination that can protect economy and save energy effectively.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X24;F426.2

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