基于STIRPAT模型吉林省碳排放影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-06 16:50

本文选题：碳排放 + 灰色关联度　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：吉林省经济发展主要依托重工业,存在能源消耗大,环境污染严重等问题,产生这种现象既有历史原因,也有现实原因。从历史上看,吉林省作为东北老工业基地,在新中国建设时期要为中国经济建设打下坚实基础,但是随着社会的发展,过去粗放式的发展模式不仅不能给这个老工业省份带来活力,反而会形成阻碍,吉林省碳排放量无法得到有效控制。从现实上看,吉林省经济发展落后,产业结构不合理,高新技术发展缓慢,只有通过消耗大量能源,才能维持经济增长,导致碳排放问题日益严重,对吉林省的可持续发展十分不利。可见,解决吉林省碳排放问题迫在眉睫,而研究碳排放的影响因素则是降低碳排放的关键所在,所以本文着重对碳排放的影响因素进行分析,希望能对政府机关制定节能减排政策提供支持。本文首先界定了碳排放的概念和碳排放水平的衡量标准,确定了碳排放核算的方法,在此基础上计算出吉林省碳排放总量,并进一步分析了吉林省碳排放总量、人均碳排放量以及碳排放强度的现状。然后,构建STIRPAT模型,利用灰色关联度测量所有相关指标与碳排放总量的相关程度,从而找出人均财富、人口、社会科技进步三方面中关联度最强的指标,利用这些指标建立岭回归模型,获得最终的长期弹性系数。同时,利用Tapio模型对人均财富、人口、社会及科技进步与碳排放量之间的关系进行短期分析,并获得短期弹性系数。结合分析长期和短期弹性系数得到以下结论:第一,吉林省人口指标对碳排放有长期显著影响,且人口指标与碳排放变动方向一致;第二,人均财富对碳排放的长期影响程度最弱,当经济稳定发展时,人均财富与碳排放呈同方向变化,经济停滞或衰退时,人均财富与碳排放呈反方向变化;第三,社会科技进步对碳排放有长期负向影响,但其发展速度较慢。根据上述结论分析吉林省碳排放存在的主要问题之后,提出以下建议:第一,吉林省要大力推动科技进步,提高能源利用效率;第二,促进社会发展,宣传低碳生活,从人民生活习惯入手,减少碳排放量;第三,大力发展第三产业,实现经济结构合理化。
[Abstract]:The economic development of Jilin Province mainly depends on heavy industry, which has many problems, such as high energy consumption and serious environmental pollution. This phenomenon has both historical and practical reasons. Historically, Jilin Province, as an old industrial base in Northeast China, must lay a solid foundation for China's economic construction in the period of new China's construction, but with the development of society, In the past, the extensive development model not only can not bring vitality to this old industrial province, but will form a hindrance, and the carbon emissions of Jilin Province cannot be effectively controlled. In reality, the economic development of Jilin Province is backward, the industrial structure is unreasonable, and the development of high and new technology is slow. Only by consuming a large amount of energy can economic growth be maintained, and the problem of carbon emissions become increasingly serious. It is unfavorable to the sustainable development of Jilin Province. Therefore, it is urgent to solve the problem of carbon emissions in Jilin Province, and the key to reduce carbon emissions is to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions, so this paper focuses on the analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions. I hope to provide support to government agencies to formulate energy conservation and emission reduction policies. Firstly, this paper defines the concept of carbon emission and the measurement standard of carbon emission level, determines the method of carbon emission accounting, calculates the total carbon emission of Jilin Province, and further analyzes the total carbon emission of Jilin Province. Current status of per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity. Then, the STIRPAT model is constructed, and the correlation degree between all the related indexes and the total carbon emission is measured by using the grey correlation degree, so as to find out the strongest correlation index among the three aspects of per capita wealth, population, and social scientific and technological progress. The ridge regression model is established by using these indexes, and the final long-term elastic coefficient is obtained. At the same time, Tapio model is used to analyze the relationship between wealth, population, social and technological progress and carbon emissions in the short term, and the short-term elasticity coefficient is obtained. Combined with the analysis of long-term and short-term elastic coefficient, the following conclusions are obtained: first, the population index of Jilin Province has a significant long-term impact on carbon emissions, and the population index is consistent with the change direction of carbon emissions; second, The long-term impact of per capita wealth on carbon emissions is the weakest. When the economy is stable, the per capita wealth and carbon emissions change in the same direction, and when the economy is stagnant or declining, the per capita wealth and carbon emissions change in the opposite direction; third, Progress in social science and technology has a long-term negative impact on carbon emissions, but its development rate is slow. Based on the above conclusions, the main problems of carbon emissions in Jilin Province are analyzed, and the following suggestions are put forward: first, Jilin Province should vigorously promote scientific and technological progress and improve energy use efficiency; second, promote social development and promote low-carbon living. Starting with people's living habits, reducing carbon emissions; third, vigorously developing the tertiary industry and rationalizing the economic structure.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X321

【参考文献】