基于冲击模型方法的自然保护区可靠性研究:以草海为例

发布时间：2018-07-07 14:13

  本文选题：自然保护区 + 冲击模型　； 参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年05期

【摘要】：自然保护区是受特殊保护和管理的一类特殊的可靠性系统。本文从可靠性视角出发,利用冲击模型方法和MATLAB随机模拟技术,以贵州草海为例分析自然保护区系统的寿命行为和失效规律。分析结果表明:(1)20世纪50年代以前,草海系统受到的人为干预相对较少,可靠性长期保持相对稳定。以人类活动为主的冲击影响始于20世纪50年代末,对保护区生态功能产生了强烈干预。(2)在1958—1980期间,政府出于防涝减灾考虑的引流排水行为扮演了系统的主要冲击,对其可靠性产生了毁灭性影响。(3)在1980年之后的30多年里,周边农民出于造田增地需求的排水毁林自发性活动则形成草海保护区的新一轮冲击,并持续影响着系统的生态功能。(4)目前草海在调节气候、缓解灾害、保持生物多样性方面的生态功能已严重弱化。如果最近几十年的人为冲击模式不能得到有效缓解,保护区系统极有可能在近期内再次发生功能性崩溃。
[Abstract]:Nature reserve is a kind of special reliability system under special protection and management. In this paper, from the perspective of reliability, the impact model method and MATLAB random simulation technique are used to analyze the life behavior and failure law of the system in Caohai, Guizhou Province. The results show that: (1) before the 1950s, the Caohai system received relatively little human intervention, and its reliability remained relatively stable for a long time. The impact mainly on human activities began in the late 1950s and had a strong impact on the ecological function of the protected areas. (2) during 1958-1980, the drainage and drainage behavior of the government for waterlogging prevention and disaster mitigation played a major role in the system. (3) in the more than 30 years after 1980, the spontaneous activities of drainage and deforestation by the surrounding farmers for land reclamation and land enhancement formed a new round of impact on the Caohai Reserve. At present, the ecological function of Caohai has been seriously weakened in regulating climate, mitigating disasters and maintaining biodiversity. If the man-made impact models of recent decades are not effectively mitigated, it is highly likely that the protected area system will have another functional collapse in the near future.
【作者单位】： 北京信息科技大学经济管理学院;兰州大学管理学院;中国农业银行股份有限公司贵阳小河支行;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于冲击模型方法的保险风险系统可靠性研究”(批准号:71171103) 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“大数据驱动的城市公共安全风险研究”(批准号:16JZD023) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“车险欺诈的识别、检查与控制策略研究”(批准号:16LZUJBWZD002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“保险欺诈的识别与应对研究”(批准号:15LZUJB WYJ036)
【分类号】：X36
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本文编号：2105214