中国雾霾空间分布特征及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-07-18 10:14

【摘要】：近年来我国雾霾天气频发,以PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)为核心的大气污染物对人体健康和大气环境质量造成了严重威胁,已经成为当前不容忽视且亟需解决的重大民生问题和环境问题,深入分析雾霾污染的形成原因和影响因素对于科学制定切实有效的治霾政策具有重要的现实意义。本文基于我国288个地级以上城市2015年1月—2017年2月的月均空气质量AQI数据,首先采用空间统计方法对雾霾污染空间分布的季节特征进行可视化描述,其次通过空间自相关指数对雾霾污染的空间集聚特征进行了实证检验,最后在此基础上建立空间计量模型对影响雾霾污染的社会经济因素进行了经验识别。结果表明:(1)我国雾霾污染的季节性特征明显,夏季空气质量状况最好,春季和秋季次之,冬季污染最严重且波及范围广,其中河北南部、河南北部、山西南部和陕西关中地区是污染重灾区,季均空气质量均为中度污染以上。(2)雾霾污染存在显著的空间正相关特征,我国东部沿海地区表现为显著的低低集聚,华北平原及周边地区呈现显著的高高集聚特征。(3)空间回归结果显示,我国雾霾污染与经济增长的关系在一定程度上与EKC曲线假说相符,其中二产畸高的产业结构、民用汽车保有量的增多和省会城市均对雾霾污染有显著的正向促进作用,但人口密度和绿化水平对雾霾污染的影响并不显著。因此,治霾政策应坚持城市内部以促进产业结构转型升级、鼓励使用新能源汽车和共享单车、疏散省会城市的职能为主,城市外部应以区域联防联控为主,从而达到缓解和改善大气环境的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent occurrence of haze weather in China, the atmospheric pollutants with PM10 and PM2.5 as the core, have posed a serious threat to human health and atmospheric environmental quality, and have become an important livelihood and environmental problems that can not be ignored and need to be solved. It is of great practical significance to analyze the causes and influencing factors of haze pollution for the scientific formulation of practical and effective haze control policies. Based on the monthly average air quality (AQI) data from January 2015 to February 2017 in 288 cities above the prefectural level in China, the spatial statistical method is used to visualize the seasonal characteristics of the spatial distribution of haze pollution. Secondly, the spatial agglomeration characteristics of haze pollution are empirically tested by spatial autocorrelation index. Finally, a spatial econometric model is established to identify the social and economic factors that affect haze pollution. The results are as follows: (1) the seasonal characteristics of haze pollution in China are obvious, the air quality in summer is the best, followed by spring and autumn, and the pollution in winter is the most serious and widespread, in which the south of Hebei, the north of Henan Province, and so on. Southern Shanxi and Guanzhong Shaanxi are the most polluted areas, and the seasonal average air quality is above moderate pollution. (2) there is a significant spatial positive correlation between haze pollution and low concentration in the eastern coastal areas of China. The spatial regression results show that the relationship between haze pollution and economic growth in China is consistent with the hypothesis of EKC curve to some extent. The increase in the number of civilian vehicles and the provincial capitals had significant positive effects on haze pollution, but the population density and greening level had no significant effect on haze pollution. Therefore, the policy of controlling haze should insist on promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure within the city, encouraging the use of new energy vehicles and sharing bicycles, and evacuating the provincial capital cities. In order to alleviate and improve the atmospheric environment.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院;北京师范大学地理科学学部;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“我国低碳城市建设评价指标体系研究”(批准号:15ZDA055)
【分类号】：X513

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