京津冀城市群热岛定量评估
发布时间：2018-07-22 19:10
【摘要】：在采用城乡二分法估算区域范围内多个城市地表热岛强度(Surface Urban Heat Island,SUHI)时,如何选择城镇化影响最小的周边乡村背景是一个技术难点,提出了一种基于地形、土地利用、植被覆盖和城市夜间灯光指数来确定乡村背景的SUHI估算方法,并建立了基于SUHI和热岛比例指数(Urban Heat Island Proportion Index,UHPI)的城市热岛强度定量评估方法。利用上述方法,基于长时间序列MODIS和NOAA卫星资料,开展了京津冀城市群11个平原城市热岛时空变化分析与评估,并开展了社会经济驱动因子对城市热岛大小的影响评估研究,同时结合未来京津冀一体化发展提出相应参考建议。研究结果表明:(1)建立的SUHI估算方法能有效监测城市群热岛年/季和昼/夜变化,近5年(2010—2014)年均SUHI≥3℃的热岛总面积1926km~2,但在热岛最强的夏季白天可达7386 km~2(占行政区域面积的5.8%);排名前四的分别是北京(2351 km~2)、天津(1883km~2)、唐山(889 km~2)和石家庄(611 km~2),显示出超大、特大城市及资源性城市贡献了大部分城市群热岛面积;各中心城区平均SUHI和UHPI分别为3.0℃和0.61,热岛评估达到较严重等级以上的城市占到73%,表明当前城市群整体热岛处于严峻现状;(2)1994、2004年和2014年夏季白天城市群强热岛面积分别为190、1975、4539 km~2,各中心城区平均SUHI分别为1.2、2.6、3.2℃,UHPI分别为0.29、0.58和0.69,热岛评估等级分别为"一般"、"较严重"和"严重"等级,反映了20年来京津冀城市群热岛迅速增强增大事实;(3)各城市年均热岛面积增加2—86 km~2/a,强热岛面积增加主要发生在超大城市,北京、天津强热岛区之间的最短空间距离从1994年的94 km逐步缩减到2014年的52 km,未来存在形成"京津区域热岛群"的可能,建议在京津之间建立"绿色生态屏障"来消除这种可能性;(4)城镇人口数、国内生产总值和用电量都极大地影响着京津冀城市热岛大小,拟合模型决定系数R2分别为0.9097、0.912和0.9661,意味着在未来京津冀一体化城市发展中可采取控制城市人口规模、减少能源消耗等措施减缓热岛效应。
[Abstract]:In estimating the surface urban heat island intensity (suri) of many cities in a region by using the urban-rural dichotomy, it is a technical difficulty to select the surrounding rural background which has the least influence on urbanization. A new method based on terrain and land use is proposed. A suhi estimation method for determining the rural background by vegetation cover and urban night light index is proposed. A quantitative evaluation method of urban heat island intensity is established based on the urban heat island ratio index (UHPI) and the urban heat island ratio index (UHPI). Based on the long time series MODIS and NOAA satellite data, the temporal and spatial changes of urban heat islands in 11 plain cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration were analyzed and evaluated, and the impact of socio-economic driving factors on the size of urban heat islands was evaluated. At the same time, combined with the future development of integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the corresponding reference suggestions are put forward. The results show that: (1) the proposed suhi estimation method can effectively monitor the annual / seasonal and daytime / night variations of urban heat islands. In the past five years (2010-2014), the total area of the heat island was 1 926 km / m ~ 2 with an average annual SUHI 鈮，
本文编号：2138287
[Abstract]:In estimating the surface urban heat island intensity (suri) of many cities in a region by using the urban-rural dichotomy, it is a technical difficulty to select the surrounding rural background which has the least influence on urbanization. A new method based on terrain and land use is proposed. A suhi estimation method for determining the rural background by vegetation cover and urban night light index is proposed. A quantitative evaluation method of urban heat island intensity is established based on the urban heat island ratio index (UHPI) and the urban heat island ratio index (UHPI). Based on the long time series MODIS and NOAA satellite data, the temporal and spatial changes of urban heat islands in 11 plain cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration were analyzed and evaluated, and the impact of socio-economic driving factors on the size of urban heat islands was evaluated. At the same time, combined with the future development of integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the corresponding reference suggestions are put forward. The results show that: (1) the proposed suhi estimation method can effectively monitor the annual / seasonal and daytime / night variations of urban heat islands. In the past five years (2010-2014), the total area of the heat island was 1 926 km / m ~ 2 with an average annual SUHI 鈮，
本文编号：2138287
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