基于情景分析与多属性决策方法的四川省大气污染防治方案研究
发布时间：2018-09-07 08:05
【摘要】：大气污染成为我国近几年最为突出的环境污染之一,已经引起各级政府的高度重视,各省市制定了大气污染防治方案或行动计划。大气污染防治方案的质量高低直接影响着大气污染防范和治理的成败。对大气污染防治方案进行研究,为全面提高其质量提供参考依据和意见,是目前的一项重要工作。当前学术界对大气污染的研究多集中在各种监测、预测系统和成因与危害等方面,缺乏对大气污染防治方案的编制和质量评价等方面的研究、缺乏运用MCDM方法于大气污染方方面面的定量化评价与比较研究、缺乏应用情景分析理论和方法对大气污染的形成和成灾过程进行情景构建和逻辑分析、缺乏对大气污染的应急应对情景进行分析,难以清楚和完整表述大气污染应急管理中各个对象、影响因子之间的协同关系。因此,为弥补当前学术界对大气污染防治方案研究的不足,并探索有利于提高大气污染防治方案质量的途径,本文以四川省9个市级政府的大气污染防治方案为对象,运用多种方法,从多个角度对大气污染防治方案展开研究,并提出改进措施。首先,运用情景分析方法,分析大气污染的形成情景、成灾情景、预防情景和应对情景,为构建大气污染防治方案评价指标体系做准备;其次,构建大气污染防治方案的评价指标体系;第三,探索新的赋权方法;第四,探索提高大气污染防治方案质量的措施。本文的研究工作,在以下方面体现了一定的创新性:第一,首次运用情景分析方法分析大气污染的形成情景、成灾情景、防范情景和应对情景。基于情景分析结果,构建大气污染防治方案评价指标体系。第二,优化方法。将Simos过程简化和层次化,与DEMATEL一起,形成同时考虑决策中的主观因素和指标间的客观联系两个方面进行合理赋权的新方法;整合PROMETHEE II,将其运算过程整合成一个公式,简化运算过程,提高运算效率,形成新的快速评估方法。第三,根据多属性决策方法分析结果,针对普遍存在的几个典型问题,从提高四川省大气污染防治方案整体质量角度,提出4个大的改进方向。
[Abstract]:Air pollution has become one of the most prominent environmental pollution in China in recent years, which has attracted great attention of governments at all levels, and various provinces and cities have formulated plans or action plans for the prevention and control of air pollution. The quality of air pollution prevention scheme directly affects the success or failure of air pollution prevention and treatment. It is an important work to study the scheme of air pollution prevention and control to provide reference and advice for improving the quality of air pollution in an all-round way. The current academic research on air pollution mainly focuses on various aspects of monitoring, forecasting systems, causes and hazards, etc., and lacks of research on the compilation and quality evaluation of air pollution prevention and control programs. There is a lack of quantitative evaluation and comparative study on all aspects of air pollution by using MCDM method, and lack of scenario construction and logical analysis of the formation and disaster process of air pollution by using scenario analysis theory and method. It is difficult to describe clearly and completely the synergetic relationship between each object and influence factors in the air pollution emergency management because of the lack of analysis of the emergency response scenarios of air pollution. Therefore, in order to make up for the deficiency of the current academic research on the air pollution prevention and control scheme, and to explore ways conducive to improving the quality of the air pollution prevention and control scheme, this paper takes the air pollution prevention scheme of nine municipal governments in Sichuan Province as the object. In this paper, several methods are used to study the prevention and control scheme of air pollution from many angles, and the improvement measures are put forward. Firstly, using scenario analysis method to analyze the formation scenario, disaster scenario, prevention scenario and response scenario of air pollution, so as to prepare for the construction of evaluation index system of air pollution prevention scheme. To construct the evaluation index system of air pollution prevention scheme; third, to explore a new method of empowerment; fourth, to explore measures to improve the quality of air pollution prevention and control program. The research work in this paper embodies some innovation in the following aspects: first, the first use of scenario analysis method to analyze the formation of atmospheric pollution scenarios, disaster scenarios, scenarios to prevent and deal with the situation. Based on the result of scenario analysis, the evaluation index system of air pollution prevention scheme is constructed. Second, the optimization method. The Simos process is simplified and hierarchical, together with DEMATEL, a new method is formed, which considers the objective connection between subjective factors and indexes in decision making, and integrates PROMETHEE II, into a formula. Simplify the operation process, improve the efficiency of the operation, and form a new fast evaluation method. Thirdly, according to the analysis results of multi-attribute decision making method and aiming at several typical problems, four major improvement directions are put forward from the point of view of improving the overall quality of air pollution prevention scheme in Sichuan Province.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X51
[Abstract]:Air pollution has become one of the most prominent environmental pollution in China in recent years, which has attracted great attention of governments at all levels, and various provinces and cities have formulated plans or action plans for the prevention and control of air pollution. The quality of air pollution prevention scheme directly affects the success or failure of air pollution prevention and treatment. It is an important work to study the scheme of air pollution prevention and control to provide reference and advice for improving the quality of air pollution in an all-round way. The current academic research on air pollution mainly focuses on various aspects of monitoring, forecasting systems, causes and hazards, etc., and lacks of research on the compilation and quality evaluation of air pollution prevention and control programs. There is a lack of quantitative evaluation and comparative study on all aspects of air pollution by using MCDM method, and lack of scenario construction and logical analysis of the formation and disaster process of air pollution by using scenario analysis theory and method. It is difficult to describe clearly and completely the synergetic relationship between each object and influence factors in the air pollution emergency management because of the lack of analysis of the emergency response scenarios of air pollution. Therefore, in order to make up for the deficiency of the current academic research on the air pollution prevention and control scheme, and to explore ways conducive to improving the quality of the air pollution prevention and control scheme, this paper takes the air pollution prevention scheme of nine municipal governments in Sichuan Province as the object. In this paper, several methods are used to study the prevention and control scheme of air pollution from many angles, and the improvement measures are put forward. Firstly, using scenario analysis method to analyze the formation scenario, disaster scenario, prevention scenario and response scenario of air pollution, so as to prepare for the construction of evaluation index system of air pollution prevention scheme. To construct the evaluation index system of air pollution prevention scheme; third, to explore a new method of empowerment; fourth, to explore measures to improve the quality of air pollution prevention and control program. The research work in this paper embodies some innovation in the following aspects: first, the first use of scenario analysis method to analyze the formation of atmospheric pollution scenarios, disaster scenarios, scenarios to prevent and deal with the situation. Based on the result of scenario analysis, the evaluation index system of air pollution prevention scheme is constructed. Second, the optimization method. The Simos process is simplified and hierarchical, together with DEMATEL, a new method is formed, which considers the objective connection between subjective factors and indexes in decision making, and integrates PROMETHEE II, into a formula. Simplify the operation process, improve the efficiency of the operation, and form a new fast evaluation method. Thirdly, according to the analysis results of multi-attribute decision making method and aiming at several typical problems, four major improvement directions are put forward from the point of view of improving the overall quality of air pollution prevention scheme in Sichuan Province.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X51
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 马柳颖;李青萍;郭t，
本文编号：2227691
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