中国制造业碳排放的经验分解与达峰路径——广义迪氏指数分解和动态情景分析

发布时间：2018-10-05 12:56

【摘要】：制造业是中国的支柱产业和碳排放大户,其碳减排效果直接决定了中国总体碳减排目标能否顺利实现。本文以《中国制造2025》和中国2030年减排目标为背景,首次使用广义迪氏指数分解法考察了1995—2014年制造业碳排放演变的驱动因素,并基于蒙特卡洛模拟对2015—2030年制造业碳排放的潜在演化趋势进行了动态情景分析,进而比较了碳排放达峰过程中相关因素的贡献差异。结果显示:投资规模是导致制造业碳排放增加的首要因素,而投资碳强度和产出碳强度则是引致碳排放减少的关键因素;重工业和轻工业因其不同发展特征而呈现出碳排放驱动因素的差异化影响;在基准情景和绿色发展情景下,制造业碳排放在2030年之前均将持续增长,而在技术突破情景下,碳排放将有较大可能在2024年提早达峰;除绿色发展情景难以实现"中国制造2025"目标外,其他两种情景设定下的制造业产出碳强度均可实现各阶段的预期下降目标;规模效应的减弱为碳排放达峰提供了有利条件,而投资碳强度和产出碳强度则为碳排放达峰提供了关键驱动力。政府需要进一步引导激励制造业企业增加以节能减排为目的的投资活动,在严格执行节能减排措施和大力发展低碳技术创新的条件下,制造业将具有可观的碳减排潜力。
[Abstract]:Manufacturing industry is the pillar industry and carbon emitter in China, and its carbon emission reduction effect directly determines whether China's overall carbon emission reduction target can be successfully achieved. With the background of "made in China 2025" and China's 2030 emission reduction target, the driving factors of carbon emissions evolution in manufacturing industry from 1995 to 2014 were investigated by using the generalized Dee index decomposition method for the first time. Based on Monte Carlo simulation, the dynamic scenario analysis of the potential evolution trend of carbon emissions in 2015-2030 is carried out, and then the contribution of related factors in the process of carbon emissions reaching peak is compared. The results show that the scale of investment is the primary factor leading to the increase of carbon emissions in manufacturing industry, and the investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity are the key factors leading to the reduction of carbon emissions. Heavy and light industries, due to their different development characteristics, exhibit differentiated effects of carbon emission drivers; in both baseline and green development scenarios, manufacturing carbon emissions will continue to grow until 2030, while in technology breakthrough scenarios, Except for the green development scenario, which is difficult to achieve the "made in China 2025" target, the carbon intensity of manufacturing output under the other two scenarios can achieve the expected decline target in each stage. The reduction of scale effect provides favorable conditions for carbon emission peak, while investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity provide key driving force for carbon emission peak. The government needs to further guide and encourage manufacturing enterprises to increase investment activities aimed at energy conservation and emission reduction. Under the conditions of strictly implementing energy-saving measures and vigorously developing low-carbon technology innovation, manufacturing industry will have considerable carbon emission reduction potential.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院;中国石油大学(华东)化学工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“能源依赖与中国区域经济发展效率的关联机制及其实证研究”(批准号71373153) 上海市曙光计划项目“碳排放约束下的中国绿色经济发展绩效评估”(批准号14SG32)
【分类号】：F424;X322

【相似文献】