一种改进的不确定性水质模型参数率定方法

发布时间：2018-10-14 18:14

【摘要】：为了能够使得水质模型的参数率定更符合实际情况,减少水质模型当中常出现的异参同效的现象,提出一种能够结合实验与算法共同对模型参数进行识别的方法,即通过设置约束条件,将单纯的"与实测值进行对比"的一般率定过程转化为"能够对模型内部过程进行一定程度控制"的率定过程.以WASP模型在北运河的某河段中进行的水质模拟结果表明,通过引入约束条件可以从更为系统的角度有效地去除部分不符合污染物转化规律的参数组合,使得最终水质模型能够更为准确地反映实际的水质变化过程,同时也减少了模型的不确定性与模型参数率定的"异参同效"现象;在模型的非线性结构与约束条件的作用下,相同子模块中原本独立的参数会呈现一定的相关性;随着对区域的水质变化过程研究的深入,当引入新增约束条件或是降低容错比例时,约束条件的作用将会进一步增强.
[Abstract]:In order to make the parameter rate of water quality model more consistent with the actual situation and reduce the phenomenon of different parameters and identical effects, a method is proposed to identify the model parameters in combination with experiments and algorithms. That is to say, by setting the constraint conditions, the simple general rate determination process of "comparing with the measured value" is transformed into the rate determination process which can control the internal process of the model to a certain extent. The simulation results of water quality in a reach of the North Canal by WASP model show that some parameter combinations which do not conform to the transformation law of pollutants can be effectively removed from a more systematic perspective by introducing constraint conditions. So that the final water quality model can more accurately reflect the actual process of water quality change, but also reduce the uncertainty of the model and the model parameter rate of the "different parameters of the same effect" phenomenon, under the nonlinear structure and constraints of the model, The original independent parameters in the same sub-module will show a certain correlation; with the in-depth study of the process of water quality change in the region, the effect of the constraint will be further enhanced when the new constraints are introduced or the fault-tolerant ratio is reduced.
【作者单位】：首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院;北京建筑大学环境与能源工程学院北京应对气候变化研究和人才培养基地城市雨水系统与水环境教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：北京市自然科学基金青年项目(8154044) 国家自然科学基金项目(41271495) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金联合资助项目(20121108110006)
【分类号】：X52

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