基于人工与自动观测对比分析的霾日重建

发布时间：2018-10-24 09:50

【摘要】：以杭州、宁波、衢州、温州气象观测站为代表站,基于浙江省2012~2014年人工与自动能见度、相对湿度观测资料,对比分析并建立拟合方程,对历史能见度及相对湿度进行修正,再利用《霾的观测与预报等级》标准对浙江历史霾日进行重建.研究表明,自动观测能见度与人工能见度线性相关性较好,但自动较人工明显偏低,人工能见度较好的沿海地区偏低更明显,全省自动能见度较人工平均偏低28.6%;自2004年开展相对湿度自动观测以来,相对湿度明显下降,根据人工与自动相对湿度对比观测数据,两种观测数据线性相关性较好,自动观测平均值小于人工平均值3%~6%;在对能见度与相对湿度采取线性回归方法进行均一性修正后,重建了霾日序列,结果表明重建后的霾曰序列消除人工与自动观测资料的误差,比原观测霾日气候序列质量有明显提高,重建的霾日变化趋势稳定,各站判定标准统一,更加合理.通过与各站2013年PM_(2.5)达到轻微污染日数与重建霾日数比较,二者的重合率大部分地区达到50%以上.利用修正重建的霾日对浙江1971年以来的霾日进行评估,20世纪70年代霾日较少,80年代逐步增加,本世纪以来增加明显,中心区域逐步由浙江中北部向浙北区域及沿海发展,尤其是一些中心城市霾日数最多.
[Abstract]:Taking the meteorological observatories of Hangzhou, Ningbo, Quzhou and Wenzhou as the representative stations, based on the observation data of artificial and automatic visibility and relative humidity from 2012 to 2014 in Zhejiang Province, the fitting equation is established and the historical visibility and relative humidity are revised. The standard of observation and prediction of haze was used to reconstruct the historical haze day in Zhejiang Province. The results show that the linear correlation between automatic observation visibility and artificial visibility is better, but the automatic visibility is obviously lower than that of artificial visibility, and the coastal areas with better artificial visibility are more obvious. Since the automatic observation of relative humidity began in 2004, the relative humidity has obviously decreased. According to the comparison of observed data between manual and automatic relative humidity, the linear correlation between the two kinds of observation data is good. The average value of automatic observation is less than the manual average of 3 and 6. After the linear regression method is used to modify the visibility and relative humidity, the haze daily series is reconstructed. The results show that the reconstructed haze sequence eliminates the errors between artificial and automatic observation data. Compared with the original observation, the quality of the daily climate series of haze is obviously improved, the trend of daily variation of the reconstructed haze is stable, and the standard of each station is uniform and more reasonable. Compared with the number of PM_ (2. 5) in 2013 and the number of days of reconstructing haze, the coincidence rate of the two reached more than 50% in most areas. The haze days since 1971 in Zhejiang Province have been evaluated by using the modified and reconstructed haze days. The haze days in the 1970s were less, gradually increased in the 1980s and increased significantly since the beginning of this century. The central regions gradually developed from central and northern Zhejiang to the northern and coastal regions of Zhejiang. In particular, some central cities have the most haze days.
【作者单位】：浙江省气候中心;
【基金】：浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LQ14D050001) 中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160703) 浙江省科技重点项目(2014C23004)
【分类号】：X513;X831

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