近11a克里雅河绿洲生态位演变态势及发展预测评价
发布时间：2018-10-31 16:55
【摘要】：以新疆克里雅河绿洲为研究靶区,从社会、经济、自然复合生态系统三方面构建指标体系,采用全排列多边形综合图示指标法对克里雅河绿洲2003-2013年的复合生态系统生态位进行了量化评价。结果表明:1)2003-2013年克里雅河绿洲三个子系统生态位的高低排序由2003年的资源生态位经济生态位社会生态位演变为2013年的经济生态位社会生态位资源生态位;2)克里雅河绿洲经济生态位与资源生态位总体趋势呈负相关,经济生态位和社会生态位基本呈现正相关;3)2003-2013年克里雅河绿洲生态位变化揭示了克里雅河绿洲近11a来综合生态位和资源、经济、社会各子系统生态位的发展变化;4)运用BP神经网络模型预测2014-2018年该绿洲的生态位综合指数预测值分别为:0.6964,0.7680,0.8312,0.8619,0.8765。
[Abstract]:Taking the Keya River oasis in Xinjiang as the research target, the index system is constructed from three aspects of social, economic and natural complex ecosystem. The ecological niche of the complex ecosystem of the Creya Oasis from 2003 to 2013 was evaluated quantitatively by means of the comprehensive mapping index method of all permutation polygons. The results are as follows: 1) from 2003 to 2013, the ranking of the three subsystems' niche in the Kryya Oasis changed from the resource niche to the social niche in 2003 to the economic niche and social niche in 2013; 2) there is a negative correlation between economic niche and resource niche in Kryya oasis, and there is a positive correlation between economic niche and social niche. 3) from 2003 to 2013, the change of ecological niche in Kryya oasis revealed the development and change of ecological niche of integrated niche and resources, economy and social subsystems in the past 11 years. 4) using the BP neural network model to predict the ecological niche index of the oasis from 2014-2018 is 0.69640.7680n0.83120.8619 / 0.8765.
【作者单位】： 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;绿洲生态教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金联合基金(NSFC-新疆联合基金)重点项目(U1138303)资助
【分类号】：X826
本文编号：2302950
[Abstract]:Taking the Keya River oasis in Xinjiang as the research target, the index system is constructed from three aspects of social, economic and natural complex ecosystem. The ecological niche of the complex ecosystem of the Creya Oasis from 2003 to 2013 was evaluated quantitatively by means of the comprehensive mapping index method of all permutation polygons. The results are as follows: 1) from 2003 to 2013, the ranking of the three subsystems' niche in the Kryya Oasis changed from the resource niche to the social niche in 2003 to the economic niche and social niche in 2013; 2) there is a negative correlation between economic niche and resource niche in Kryya oasis, and there is a positive correlation between economic niche and social niche. 3) from 2003 to 2013, the change of ecological niche in Kryya oasis revealed the development and change of ecological niche of integrated niche and resources, economy and social subsystems in the past 11 years. 4) using the BP neural network model to predict the ecological niche index of the oasis from 2014-2018 is 0.69640.7680n0.83120.8619 / 0.8765.
【作者单位】： 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;绿洲生态教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金联合基金(NSFC-新疆联合基金)重点项目(U1138303)资助
【分类号】：X826
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