陕西省碳排放现状及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-12-05 21:19

【摘要】：近年来,伴随经济持续快速发展,我国已经成为世界上第一大二氧化碳排放国,面临日渐增大的二氧化碳减排压力。我国政府为积极应对以气候变暖为特征的全球气候变化带来的挑战,提出了阶段性二氧化碳减排目标。省级经济区域是实施中国温室气体减排政策的着力点,陕西省作为能源大省,被列入中国首批低碳试点地区之一。对陕西省二氧化碳排放影响因素及其作用强度的研究,不仅有助于科学制定陕西省节能减排政策,而且对我国实现2020年二氧化碳减排目标具有重要意义。因此,本文在文献回顾和基本理论概述的基础上运用统计分析和计量分析方法对陕西省二氧化碳排放问题进行深入研究。在分析陕西省经济发展和能源消费现状的基础上,测算了2003-2015年二氧化碳排放总量及二氧化碳强度变动趋势,采用扩展的Kaya模型和分解对数均值迪氏指数法,将经济发展、能源消费结构和能源强度三个因素对人均二氧化碳排放增长变化的影响进行分解分析。结果表明:2003-2015年,陕西省二氧化碳排放量呈现出逐年递增的趋势,由2003年的2739.48×104t增加至2015年的8421.23×104t;经济发展效应对陕西省人均二氧化碳排放贡献最大,贡献值为正值,经济发展是陕西省人均二氧化碳排放增长的主导因素;能源结构效应和能源强度效应贡献值均为负值,是抑制陕西省人均二氧化碳排放增长的主要因素,但两者影响并不显著。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the sustained and rapid economic development, China has become the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, facing increasing pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In order to deal with the challenge brought by global climate change which is characterized by global warming, our government has put forward a phased carbon dioxide reduction target. Provincial economic regions are the focus of China's greenhouse gas emission reduction policy. As a major energy province, Shaanxi Province has been listed as one of the first low-carbon pilot areas in China. The research on the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emission and its action intensity in Shaanxi Province is not only helpful to make the policy of energy saving and emission reduction in Shaanxi Province scientifically, but also of great significance to our country to achieve the target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. Therefore, on the basis of literature review and basic theory overview, this paper makes a deep study on carbon dioxide emissions in Shaanxi Province by means of statistical analysis and econometric analysis. Based on the analysis of current economic development and energy consumption in Shaanxi Province, the change trend of total carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide intensity from 2003 to 2015 was calculated. The extended Kaya model and the decomposition logarithmic mean di's index method were used to develop the economy. The influence of energy consumption structure and energy intensity on per capita carbon dioxide emission growth was analyzed. The results show that from 2003 to 2015, the carbon dioxide emissions of Shaanxi Province increased year by year, from 2739.48 脳 10 ~ 4 t in 2003 to 8421.23 脳 10 ~ 4 t in 2015. The economic development effect contributes the most to the per capita carbon dioxide emission in Shaanxi Province, and the contribution value is positive. The economic development is the leading factor of the per capita carbon dioxide emission growth in Shaanxi Province. The contribution of energy structure effect and energy intensity effect is negative, which is the main factor to restrain the increase of carbon dioxide emission per capita in Shaanxi Province, but the effect is not significant.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X321

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