我国工业碳解锁进程及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-12-13 15:20

【摘要】：我国正处在“十三五”建设的开局之年,工业经济面临发展和减排的双重压力。但改革开放以来逐步形成的以重化工业为基础的产业结构和以化石能源为主的能源结构导致我国碳排放水平居高不下,工业低碳化转型困难重重。尽管2015年我国取得了碳排放量下降1.5%的阶段性减排成果,但从总量上看仍不容乐观。工业部门作为我国的能源消耗大户,其占总消耗量的比重基本在2/3以上。2005年,我国工业部门的碳排放水平为270096.72万吨,2014年上升到395968.64万吨,经济发展明显高碳化。可以说我国工业行业发展已经陷入“碳锁定”。因此,研究如何突破碳锁定(Carbon Lock-in),加快工业碳解锁进程,对工业产业的低碳化转型和我国减排目标的完成有至关重要的影响,也是我国实现低碳发展的不二法则。此外,我国地域广大,各地区的经济发展水平和自然资源禀赋存在较大差异,各省之间的碳解锁状态也不尽一致,以省域为研究对象,能更好地因地制宜地寻求碳解锁对策。本文以数据收集和计算为基础,以趋势分析—影响因素—对策建议为主线,以2005到2014年为时间节点,以30个省市为研究对象。首先介绍了我国工业碳解锁问题的研究背景与意义,通过文献回顾和梳理相关理论基础为下文进一步分析做了理论铺垫。接着,从国域、区域和省域三个层面对我国的工业碳排放现状和特点做了较为详细的分析,在此基础上运用脱钩模型,对我国30个省市工业行业的解锁效应做了定量判断。然后引入计量经济学分析方法,利用面板数据模型,从经济规模、技术进步、能源结构等角度,对全国和分地区的工业碳解锁影响因素做了实证分析,并在实证基础上提出对策建议。通过研究分析,本文主要有以下结论:(1)根据经济发展水平和碳解锁情况,可大致将30个省市分为三大类:经济发展水平较高且多表现为解锁的北京、上海等6个省市,说明经济发展质量较高;经济还在快速发展阶段、碳解锁状态波动较大的山西、内蒙古、辽宁等共计11个省市,减排压力较大;经济还在快速发展阶段、解锁状态相对稳定的河北、安徽、福建等共13个省市,多表现为经济水平与碳排放双增长。(2)影响因素实证方面,从全国看,能源消费结构是工业碳排放强度的主要推动因素,能源利用效率、劳均产出和研发投入比重对碳排放强度的抑制作用依次减弱;从分区域看,各解释变量的影响与全国的大同小异,作用方向基本一致。特别注意到,Ⅲ类地区的研发强度与碳排放强度呈正相关,与预期相反,可能的解释是研发投入主要用在了促进工业产出增长方面而不是节能减排上。最后在实证结果的基础上,从技术、制度以及地区差异化角度提出了促进低碳化、实现工业碳解锁的相关建议。
[Abstract]:China is at the beginning of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, and the industrial economy is under the double pressure of development and emission reduction. However, the industrial structure based on heavy chemical industry and the energy structure based on fossil energy gradually formed since the reform and opening up led to the high level of carbon emissions in China and the difficulties in the transition of industrial low-carbon industry. Although China has achieved a 1.5% reduction in carbon emissions in 2015, but the total amount is still not optimistic. As a major consumer of energy consumption in China, the industrial sector accounts for more than 2 / 3 of the total consumption. In 2005, the level of carbon emissions in China's industrial sector was 2.7009672 billion tons, which rose to 3.9596864 billion tons in 2014. It can be said that China's industrial development has fallen into a "carbon lock." Therefore, the research on how to break through carbon locking (Carbon Lock-in) and speed up the process of industrial carbon unlocking has a vital impact on the low-carbon transformation of industrial industry and the completion of China's emission reduction target, and is also the rule of achieving low-carbon development in China. In addition, there are great differences in the level of economic development and natural resource endowment among different regions in China, and the carbon unlocking status among provinces is not the same. Taking the provincial area as the research object, the countermeasures of carbon unlocking can be better sought according to the local conditions. Based on data collection and calculation, this paper takes trend analysis, influencing factors and countermeasures and suggestions as the main line, taking 2005 to 2014 as the time node and 30 provinces and cities as research objects. Firstly, this paper introduces the research background and significance of the industrial carbon unlocking problem in China, and makes a theoretical foundation for further analysis by reviewing the literature and combing the relevant theoretical basis. Then, the paper makes a detailed analysis of the current situation and characteristics of industrial carbon emissions in China from three levels: national, regional and provincial, and makes a quantitative judgment on the unlocking effect of industrial industries in 30 provinces and cities of China based on the decoupling model. Then, by introducing econometric analysis method, using panel data model, from the perspective of economic scale, technological progress and energy structure, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of industrial carbon unlocking in China and in different regions. On the basis of empirical analysis, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Through research and analysis, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) according to the level of economic development and the situation of carbon release, 30 provinces and cities can be roughly divided into three categories: Beijing, Shanghai and other 6 provinces and cities with a high level of economic development. It shows that the quality of economic development is high; The economy is still in the rapid development stage, the carbon release state fluctuates greatly Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and so on altogether 11 provinces and cities, reduces the emission pressure to be big; The economy is still in the stage of rapid development. 13 provinces and cities, such as Hebei, Anhui, Fujian and so on, which are relatively stable in unlocked state, mostly show that the economic level and carbon emissions are both increasing. (2) the empirical analysis of the influencing factors, from the national point of view, Energy consumption structure is the main driving factor of industrial carbon emission intensity. From the sub-regional point of view, the influence of each explanatory variable is similar to that of the whole country, and the direction of action is basically the same. It is noted in particular that R & D intensity is positively correlated with carbon emission intensity in category III areas, contrary to expectations, the possible explanation is that R & D investment is mainly used to promote industrial output growth rather than energy conservation and emission reduction. Finally, based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to promote low carbonization and realize industrial carbon unlocking from the point of view of technology, institution and regional difference.
【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F424

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