全球排放情景实现路径及国别影响研究

发布时间：2019-01-05 11:38

【摘要】：IPCC第五次评估报告采用典型浓度路径(representative concentration pathways,RCP)情景对全球温室气体浓度与气候影响作出分析,但当前研究对于排放路径实施的具体方案讨论较少.本文采用反应发展中国家诉求的"收缩与趋同"方案对RCP情景描述的CO_2排放空间进行分配,应用全球多区域动态一般均衡模型对全球各区域的减排路径及能源经济影响进行分析.研究表明,由于各国发展阶段与特征不同,减排成本的国别差异较大,中国经济损失(5.3%~14.2%之间)明显高于欧盟与美国,且中国在2030年以前实现严格减排的经济冲击比2030年以后实现更大.中国一方面需要谨慎做出国际减排承诺,一方面也应该寻求国际社会更多的支持与帮助.同时,全球碳排放配额交易机制的建立可以大幅降低国际减排成本.研究结果为中国在国际谈判中争取合理发展空间,设计国际合作制度等提供研究支持.
[Abstract]:The IPCC Fifth Assessment report uses the typical concentration path (representative concentration pathways,RCP) scenario to analyze the global greenhouse gas concentration and climate impacts, but the current research on the implementation of the emission path is less discussed. In this paper, the "contraction and convergence" scheme, which responds to the demands of developing countries, is used to allocate the CO_2 emission space described in the RCP scenario. The global multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model is applied to analyze the emission reduction path and energy economy impact in various regions of the world. The study shows that, due to the different stages and characteristics of each country's development, the cost of emission reduction varies greatly among countries, and China's economic losses (between 5.3% and 14.2%) are significantly higher than those of the European Union and the United States. And China's economic impact of strict emissions reductions by 2030 is greater than it has been since 2030. On the one hand, China needs to make prudent international emission reduction commitments, and on the other hand, it should seek more support and help from the international community. At the same time, the establishment of a global carbon quota trading mechanism can significantly reduce the cost of international emissions reduction. The results provide research support for China to strive for reasonable development space and design international cooperation system in international negotiations.
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院;清华大学能源环境经济研究所;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金(2016T90107)~~
【分类号】：X21

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