基于地理加权回归的石漠化影响因子分布研究

发布时间：2019-03-16 16:47

【摘要】：分析和识别石漠化的关键影响因子,有助于有效治理和恢复石漠化。以往研究对影响因子的空间局部差异关注较少,本文以黔桂喀斯特山地为研究区,选取自然及社会经济等12个影响因子,利用地理加权回归(GWR)模型,在普通线性回归的基础上嵌入空间因素,分析石漠化影响因子的空间分异。结果表明:(1)黔桂喀斯特山地的石漠化Moran’s I大于正态函数在99%显著水平,存在明显空间聚集现象;(2)GWR模型R~2(0.508)明显高于传统统计模型的R~2(0.156),回归模型拟合效果显著提高;(3)12个影响因子与石漠化关系呈现不同数值大小、正负效应和线性组合关系的空间分布差异;(4)人类活动叠加在喀斯特特殊的岩性、土壤和植被组合上,显著影响石漠化分布;同时,局部区域高强度人类活动导致石漠化的急剧变化。GWR模型可揭示石漠化影响因子的空间分异规律和局部的关键影响因子,刻画多因子组合作用对石漠化的影响,有助于差别化的小流域石漠化治理。
[Abstract]:Analyzing and identifying the key influencing factors of rocky desertification is helpful to effectively control and restore rocky desertification. The previous studies paid little attention to the spatial local differences of the influence factors. In this paper, the Guizhou-Guangxi karst mountain area was chosen as the study area, and 12 influencing factors, such as natural and socio-economic factors, were selected, and the geographical weighted regression (GWR) model was used. The spatial differentiation of influencing factors of rocky desertification is analyzed by embedding spatial factors on the basis of general linear regression. The results show that: (1) the Moran's I of rocky desertification in Guizhou-Guangxi karst mountain area is higher than normal function at 99% significant level, and there is obvious spatial aggregation phenomenon; (2) GWR (0.508) model was significantly higher than that of traditional statistical model (0.156), and the fitting effect of regression model was significantly improved. (3) the spatial distribution difference of positive and negative effect and linear combination relation between 12 influence factors and rocky desertification; (4) Human activities superimposed on karst special lithology, soil and vegetation combination, significantly affected the distribution of rocky desertification; The GWR model can reveal the spatial differentiation of the factors affecting rocky desertification and the key local factors, and describe the effects of multi-factor combination on rocky desertification, which is the result of the rapid change of rocky desertification caused by the high intensity of human activities in the local area, and the GWR model can reveal the spatial differentiation of the factors affecting rocky desertification. It is helpful to control rocky desertification in small watershed.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41601095) 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2015CB452702)
【分类号】：X171

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