基于蒙特卡罗模拟的土壤环境健康风险评价:以PAHs为例

发布时间：2019-04-24 11:03

【摘要】：为获得更为合理的健康风险评价结果,并辨识对健康风险影响最大的因素,基于蒙特卡罗随机模拟,运用概率风险评价模型,定量评估了中国上海某居民区土壤中16种PAHs对居民的健康风险水平,并对各参数进行敏感性分析.结果表明,土壤中PAHs造成的健康风险服从对数正态分布,总的致癌风险为3.43×10~(-5)±2.63×10~(-5),最小值为8.10×10~(-7),最大值为2.39×10~(-4),超过10-6的概率为95%,超过10~(-5)的概率为75%,超过10~(-4)的概率小于5%;总的危害商为4.74×10~(-2)±3.42×10~(-2),不超过1,风险较小;在7种具有致癌效应的PAHs中,苯并(a)芘、二苯并(a,h)蒽和苯并(a)蒽是总致癌风险的主要贡献物质,贡献率分别占60.41%、26.84%和6.56%;3种暴露途径中,经口途径是造成致癌风险的主要途径,贡献率为73.22%;对于总致癌风险,人体暴露参数中每日土壤摄入量、暴露周期、暴露皮肤面积敏感度较大,分别为58.35%、50.21%和20.51%;体重具有负敏感性,敏感度为-11.66%.
[Abstract]:In order to obtain more reasonable results of health risk assessment, and to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on health risk, based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation, the probabilistic risk assessment model is used. The health risk levels of 16 kinds of PAHs in soils of a residential area in Shanghai China were quantitatively evaluated and the sensitivity of each parameter was analyzed. The results showed that the health risk caused by PAHs in soil obeyed lognormal distribution, the total carcinogenic risk was 3.43 脳 10 ~ (- 5) 卤2.63 脳 10 ~ (- 5), the minimum value was 8.10 脳 10 ~ (- 7), the maximum value was 2.39 脳 10 ~ (- 4), and the total carcinogenic risk was 3.43 脳 10 ~ (- 5) 卤2.63 脳 10 ~ (- 5). The probability of exceeding 10 ~ (- 6) is 95%, the probability of exceeding 10 ~ (- 5) is 75%, and the probability of exceeding 10 ~ (- 4) is less than 5%. The total hazard quotient was 4.74 脳 10 ~ (- 2) 卤3.42 脳 10 ~ (- 2), no more than 1, and the risk was small. Among the seven PAHs with carcinogenic effects, benzo-(a) pyrene, dibenzo (a, h) anthracene and benzo-(a) anthracene were the major contributors to the total carcinogenic risk, accounting for 60.41%, 26.84% and 6.56% of the total carcinogenic risk, respectively. Among the three exposure pathways, oral pathway is the main way to cause carcinogenic risk, and the contribution rate is 73.22%. For the total risk of carcinogenesis, the sensitivity of daily soil intake, exposure cycle, and skin area were 58.35%, 50.21% and 20.51%, respectively, and negative sensitivity of body weight was-11.66%.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51674268)
【分类号】：X825

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