多维度城镇化视角下的碳排放影响因素研究——基于中国省域数据的空间杜宾面板模型

发布时间：2019-06-11 15:49

【摘要】：城镇化与碳排放是当代中国经济社会发展的两大特征,中国的新型城镇化不仅要求实现人口、土地、经济城镇化的协调统一,还要求在城镇化的进程中注重生态环境的保护,实现绿色低碳发展。因此,从不同维度城镇化视角探讨碳排放的影响因素并对比其差异具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文根据2008—2014年中国30个省份的面板数据测算了各省的碳排放量,运用熵权法对表征土地城镇化、经济城镇化的相关指标进行了整组变量压缩,然后运用ESDA方法分析了省域间碳排放的空间相关性,基于STIRPAT模型分别构建了人口城镇化、土地城镇化、经济城镇化三个维度下的碳排放影响因子空间杜宾面板模型并进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,各省份的碳排放存在正的空间相关性,并且经济因素助长了这种空间相关性。在各城镇化维度下,人口规模、人均可支配收入、碳强度对本省份及相邻省份的碳排放均具有显著的影响,其中:人口规模是最主要的影响因素;人均可支配收入具有显著的正向作用,中国正处于环境库兹涅茨曲线的上升阶段;在经济水平相近的情况下,各省份间的碳排放具有"逐顶竞争"的特征。不同城镇化维度下,各因素对碳排放的影响存在明显的差异:从直接效应来看,经济城镇化维度下各影响因素的弹性系数最大,土地城镇化维度下的人口规模对碳排放的影响最小;从反馈效应来看,在人口城镇化维度下省份间碳排放的"逐顶竞争"特征最为明显;从间接效应来看,经济城镇化维度下的人均可支配收入对相邻省份的碳排放量存在显著的负向影响。
[Abstract]:Urbanization and carbon emissions are the two major characteristics of contemporary China's economic and social development. China's new urbanization requires not only the coordination and unity of population, land and economic urbanization, but also the protection of ecological environment and the realization of green and low-carbon development in the process of urbanization. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions from different dimensions of urbanization and compare their differences. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2014, this paper calculates the carbon emissions of each province, and uses entropy weight method to compress the related indexes of land urbanization and economic urbanization, and then analyzes the spatial correlation of carbon emissions between provinces by using ESDA method, and constructs population urbanization and land urbanization based on STIRPAT model. The spatial Dubin panel model of carbon emission influencing factors under the three dimensions of economic urbanization is analyzed empirically. The results show that there is a positive spatial correlation between carbon emissions in various provinces, and economic factors contribute to this spatial correlation. Under the dimension of urbanization, population size, per capita disposable income and carbon intensity have significant effects on carbon emissions in their own provinces and adjacent provinces, among which: population size is the most important influencing factor; per capita disposable income has a significant positive effect, China is in the rising stage of environmental Kuznets curve; in the case of similar economic level, carbon emissions among provinces have the characteristics of "top-by-top competition". Under different urbanization dimensions, there are obvious differences in the influence of each factor on carbon emissions: from the direct effect point of view, the elastic coefficient of each influencing factor under the dimension of economic urbanization is the largest, and the population size under the dimension of land urbanization has the smallest influence on carbon emissions, from the feedback effect, the "top-by-top competition" characteristics of carbon emissions between provinces are the most obvious under the dimension of population urbanization. From the point of view of indirect effect, the per capita disposable income in the dimension of economic urbanization has a significant negative impact on the carbon emissions of neighboring provinces.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“多尺度空间视角下城市群的城镇化发展对碳排放的作用机理及其减排路径研究:以长三角为例”(批准号:71673270),“空间场视角下的中国能源基地可持续发展评价与优化”(批准号:71403268) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“区域低碳发展指数构建及其应用”(批准号:14YJCZH146) 全国统计科学研究项目“时空效应视角下的区域低碳发展评价研究”(批准号:2014LZ26),“城市群城市低碳发展的空间差异与互动关系研究——以长三角为例”(批准号:2015LY14)
【分类号】：X22;X321

【相似文献】