位于水库型水源地准保护区的工业园企业环境风险评价方法研究

发布时间：2019-06-18 14:43

【摘要】：本文以目前位于水源地准保护区的工业园为研究对象,分析了位于水源准保护区的工业园特殊性和园区的事故次生叠加效应。在对工业园环境风险源进行风险分析和识别的基础上,构建了环境风险评价指标体系,并将改进的突变评价法应用于本研究中。以岗集镇工业园为案例,计算了工业园区内各企业以及区域的环境风险大小,并分别并判断风险等级。具体内容如下:(1)首先采用鱼骨图法,从风险物质、生产设施和次生事故等方面分析了工业园企业的环境风险特征。针对工业园企业环境风险事件的叠加效应,分析了工业园企业环境风险源燃爆和泄漏事故产生的风险源次生连锁事故,从污染物排放总量控制方面考虑了位于准保护区的工业园企业环境风险的特殊性。计算了泄漏源强、次生事故源强等,并基于一维和二维水质模型计算突发事故产生的污染物对水源地的影响。(2)鉴于突变评价法无需赋权的优点,将其应用于本研究中。通过改进方法将靠近于1的常规突变评价值,扩大到[0,1]区间上,提高了评价值的分辨率。以COD年排放量、氨氮年排放量和迁移可能性代表了准保护区工业园企业的特殊性,以次生事故因子代表了工业园企业次生事故的影响,构建了风险源、风险物质迁移和应急管理3方面,共15个评价指标的环境风险评价指标体系,采用改进的突变评价法计算工业园企业的环境风险值。最后基于姚志麒指数原理,推导区域环境风险值计算公式,计算了工业园的区域环境风险大小。(3)以合肥市大房郢水库型水源地准保护区内工业园为案例进行实例分析,计算环境风险源大小和等级。应用突变评价法计算园区30家企业风险源的环境风险大小,并计算了不考虑总量控制和次生事故相关指标情况下,各风险源的常规突变评价值。结果表明,考虑总量控制和次生事故相关指标情况下,得到的风险值相对较小。园区内30个企业风险源中,有3个为重大风险等级,5个为较大风险等级,22个为一般风险等级;区域环境风险值为0.4320,属于较大风险等级。与《企业突发环境事件风险评估指南(试行)》方法得出的结果对比,本研究的计算结果可以用指数形式表示各个企业的环境风险大小,风险等级评价结果与《指南》风险等级评价结果基本一致,但有个别企业评价结果存在小幅差别,最后分析了结果存在差异的原因。(4)依据评价结果,提出位于水源准保护区的工业园环境风险管理与应急建议;评价结果具有一定实际意义,可以为决策者提供参考和技术支持。
[Abstract]:Taking the industrial park located in the water source quasi-protected area as the research object, this paper analyzes the particularity of the industrial park located in the water source quasi-protection area and the accident secondary superposition effect of the park. On the basis of risk analysis and identification of environmental risk sources in industrial parks, the index system of environmental risk assessment is constructed, and the improved catastrophe evaluation method is applied to this study. Taking Gangji Town Industrial Park as an example, the environmental risk of each enterprise and region in the industrial park is calculated, and the risk grade is judged separately. The specific contents are as follows: (1) the environmental risk characteristics of industrial park enterprises are analyzed from the aspects of risky substances, production facilities and secondary accidents by using fish bone diagram method. In view of the superposition effect of environmental risk events in industrial park enterprises, this paper analyzes the secondary chain accidents caused by the explosion and leakage of environmental risk sources in industrial park enterprises, and considers the particularity of environmental risk in industrial park enterprises located in quasi-protected areas from the aspect of total pollutant emission control. The strong leakage source and secondary accident source are calculated, and the influence of pollutants caused by sudden accident on water source is calculated based on one-dimensional and two-dimensional water quality model. (2) in view of the advantage that sudden change evaluation method does not need to be weighted, it is applied to this study. By using the improved method, the conventional mutation evaluation value close to 1 is extended to the range of [0, 1], and the resolution of the evaluation value is improved. The annual emission of COD, the annual emission of ammonia nitrogen and the possibility of migration represent the particularity of industrial park enterprises in quasi-protected areas, and the secondary accident factors represent the influence of secondary accidents of industrial park enterprises. The environmental risk assessment index system of 15 evaluation indexes is constructed from three aspects of risk source, risk material migration and emergency management. The environmental risk value of industrial park enterprises is calculated by using the improved sudden change evaluation method. Finally, based on the principle of Yao Zhiqi index, the formula for calculating the regional environmental risk value of the industrial park is derived, and the regional environmental risk of the industrial park is calculated. (3) taking the industrial park in the Dafangying water reservoir type water source quasi-protected area of Hefei as an example, the size and grade of the environmental risk source are calculated. The environmental risk of 30 enterprises in the park is calculated by catastrophe evaluation method, and the conventional catastrophe evaluation value of each risk source is calculated without considering the total amount control and the related indexes of secondary accidents. The results show that the risk value is relatively small when the total amount control and the related indexes of secondary accidents are taken into account. Of the 30 enterprise risk sources in the park, 3 are significant risk grade, 5 are large risk grade, 22 are general risk grade, and the regional environmental risk value is 0.4320, which belongs to the larger risk grade. Compared with the results obtained by the guidelines for risk Assessment of Environmental Emergencies of Enterprises (trial), the calculated results of this study can be expressed in the form of index, and the results of risk grade evaluation are basically consistent with those of the risk level evaluation of the Guide, but there are some slight differences in the evaluation results of individual enterprises. finally, the reasons for the differences in the results are analyzed. (4) according to the evaluation results, The environmental risk management and emergency suggestions of industrial parks located in water source quasi-protected areas are put forward. The evaluation results have certain practical significance and can provide reference and technical support for decision makers.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X820.4

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