我国行业碳排放效率的动态演进及其驱动因素的动态影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 00:11

本文关键词：我国行业碳排放效率的动态演进及其驱动因素的动态影响研究　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：世界各国经济的快速发展,带来的能源枯竭和环境污染等问题也日益严重,其中二氧化碳排放所引起的温室效应问题尤为突出,这不仅给我国生产生活带来严重的负面影响,也导致我国承受了来自国际上的巨大减排压力。基于此,针对碳排放效率的相关研究成为了当前低碳经济领域的热点之一。由于碳排放的主要源头是各个行业,本文以行业为研究对象,借鉴相关理论和文献,在全要素框架下对碳排放效率进行科学计量,并进一步探究我国行业碳排放效率的动态演进特征及其驱动因素的影响机理。这对于政府设定合理的减排目标、优化产业结构和制定行业针对性的节能减排政策都具有较为重要的现实意义。首先,进行行业全要素碳排放效率的测度和分析。相较于单要素碳排放效率,全要素碳排放效率将资源、环境和经济纳入统一框架下,在指标全面性和效率可改进性等方面具有优势。基于此,本文选择基于松弛变量测算的超效率数据包络分析方法(Super-SBM DEA),以资本、劳动力和能源为投入,总产值和碳排放量为产出,测度行业碳排放效率。其次,实证考察行业碳排放效率的动态演进特征及其驱动因素的影响效果。其中行业碳排放效率的动态演进主要采用绝对收敛性分析和核密度分析的方法,而驱动因素的研究则采用行业全局向量自回归模型(IGVAR)。研究结论如下:第一,碳排放量存在明显的行业差异性,且随时间推移呈现出递增趋势。基于行业碳排放量的测算结果,建筑业的碳排放量最低,年均值为3490万吨,其原因是建筑业的能源消耗较低(总消耗的年均水平仅为制造业的2.7%)。而制造业属于“双高”行业,碳排放量年均值为433372万吨,是其他五个行业总和的1.15倍,年均增长率则高达8.95%。此外,其他行业碳排放量从高至低的排序为:电力、煤气及水生产和供应业,采掘业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,农林渔牧业。第二,全要素碳排放效率呈现出显著的行业差异性。六大行业由高至低排序为:建筑业,农林渔牧业,制造业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,电力、煤气及水生产和供应业,采掘业。其中交通运输、仓储和邮政业,电力、煤气及水生产和供应业,采掘业的年平均碳排放效率皆不超过0.2,而最高的建筑业则为0.89。第三,碳排放效率不存在行业“趋同”现象,且低水平行业效率的增长趋势缓慢,这是目前我国碳排放效率的主要问题所在。从时序变化的角度上,碳排放效率低下的采掘业,制造业,电力、煤气及水生产和供应业,交通运输、仓储及邮政业基本呈现缓慢上升或者小范围内波动的情况。进一步地,从行业碳排放效率演进的角度分析,演进收敛性表明:2007年后碳排放效率不满足绝对收敛性,即碳排放效率的行业差距将拉大。而演进特征则主要有三点:一是大多数行业在较低的碳排放效率水平上集聚;二是随着时间推移,大部分行业碳排放效率呈现递增趋势,但速度缓慢;三是,在高碳排放效率水平上,行业差异性较大,在低水平上则较小。第四,碳排放效率驱动因素的作用效果具有行业差异性。具体表现为:(1)工业碳排放效率驱动因素的内部效应各不相同,且存在明显的溢出效应和挤出效应。一方面,从内部效应看,工业经济规模的扩大和技术水平的进步有利于本身碳排放效率的提升,贸易开放则具有抑制作用。另一方面,从溢出效应和挤出效应看(溢出效应指某一行业驱动因素增长对其他行业碳排放效率有正向作用,挤出作用则相反),工业经济规模的扩大对农林渔牧业,建筑业的碳排放效率存在挤出效应,对交通运输、仓储和邮政业则有溢出效应;工业技术进步对农林渔牧业有溢出效应,对建筑业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业则有挤出效应;工业扩大对外贸易对农林渔牧业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业有溢出效应,对建筑业则有挤出效应。只有综合工业驱动因素的挤出效应、溢出效应和内部效应,才能更全面把握工业碳排放效率的提升。(2)行业内部驱动因素的作用效果各不相同,且行业之间同一驱动因素的作用效果存在明显的差异性。行业内,农林渔牧业,采掘业,建筑业的三种驱动因素对其碳排放效率皆表现为正向作用;电力、煤气及水生产和供应业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业的经济规模和技术进步表现为正向作用,制造业仅有技术进步表现为正向作用。行业间,在经济规模的冲击下,农林渔牧业碳排放效率提升最明显,其次为交通运输、仓储和邮政业,采掘业,电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业,建筑业,而制造业的碳排放效率出现衰减;技术进步的冲击下,碳排放效率提升最大的为建筑业,最小的为交通运输、仓储和邮政业,其余由高到低的顺序为:制造业,农林渔牧业,采掘业,电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业;贸易开放水平的冲击下,农林渔牧业碳排放效率提升最为明显,其次为采掘业,建筑业,其他行业都出现衰减的情况。最后,本文基于研究结果提出了行业碳排放效率提升的相关建议:对于农林渔牧业,需注重提高劳动者素质和加快经济发展;对于工业,需强调能源节约和技术进步;对于交通运输、仓储和邮政业,应关注节能和经济发展;而对于碳排放效率行业差异性的缩小,则建议政府依据行业碳排放效率驱动因素的实际作用效果,针对低效率行业,加强能耗和碳排放的监测监管,并进行合理的资源倾斜。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of world economy, energy depletion and environmental pollution problems are increasingly serious, the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide emissions caused by the problem is particularly prominent, which not only bring serious negative effect to the production and living in China, also causes our country to suffer from the huge pressure. Based on this, according to the the related research of carbon emission efficiency has become one of the hotspots in the field of low carbon economy. As the main sources of carbon emissions is various industries, based on industry as the research object, referring to the relevant literature and theory, scientific measurement of carbon emission efficiency in all elements under the framework of dynamic evolution and to further explore the carbon emission efficiency the influence factors and mechanism of driving. This for the government to set a reasonable target, optimize the industrial structure and the development of industry for energy saving and emission reduction policy are It has important practical significance. Firstly, the determination and analysis of carbon emission efficiency of the industry. Compared to the single factor of carbon emission efficiency of carbon emission efficiency of resources, environment and economy into a unified framework, can be improved and other aspects have advantages in comprehensive index and efficiency. Based on this, this paper choose the analysis method of super efficiency data envelopment slack variables based on measurement (Super-SBM DEA), to the capital, labor and energy input, output and carbon emissions as output, carbon emission efficiency measurement industry. Secondly, the dynamic evolution characteristics of empirical industry carbon emission efficiency and driving effect factors. The dynamic evolution of industry carbon emission efficiency mainly adopt the analysis method of absolute convergence analysis and kernel density, while the research on the driving factors is the industry global vector autoregressive model (IGVAR). The conclusion of the study such as : first, there are significant differences between industries of carbon emissions, and with the passage of time is showing an increasing trend. The calculation results based on industry carbon emissions, carbon emissions in the construction industry the lowest annual average of 34 million 900 thousand tons, the reason is the construction of energy consumption is low (average level of total consumption is only 2.7% manufacturing). The manufacturing industry belongs to the "double high" industries, the annual average carbon emissions of 4 billion 333 million 720 thousand tons, is 1.15 times the sum of the other five industries, the average annual growth rate is as high as 8.95%. addition, carbon emissions in other industries from high to low order: electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, mining industry, transportation, storage and postal industry, animal husbandry and fishery industry. Second, the total factor efficiency of carbon emissions showed a significant industry difference. Six industries from high to low ranking: construction, agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, storage and postal industry, power, Gas and water production and supply industry, mining industry. Including transportation, storage and postal services, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, the average annual carbon emission efficiency of mining is not more than 0.2, while the highest building industry is 0.89. third, carbon emission efficiency there is no industry convergence phenomenon. The growth trend and the low efficiency of the industry is slow, this is the main problem of the efficiency of carbon emission in China. From the temporal perspective, carbon emission efficiency low mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, transportation, storage and postal industry increases with a low or small in the range of fluctuations. Further, analysis from the perspective of the evolution of industry carbon emission efficiency, evolution convergence after 2007 showed that carbon emission efficiency does not meet the absolute convergence, namely carbon emission efficiency of the industry gap will be widening. And evolution characteristics There are three main points: one is most of the industry agglomeration in the carbon emission efficiency at a low level; two is with the passage of time, most of the industry carbon emission efficiency increased, but the speed is slow; three, in high carbon emission efficiency level, industry differences in the low water level is fourth smaller. The effect of carbon emission efficiency, driving factors with the industry differences. Specific performance: (1) the industrial carbon emission efficiency driven internal effect factors are different, and there is obvious spillover effect and crowding out effect. On the one hand, from the internal effect, industrial economy scale and the level of technical progress in favor of its carbon emission efficiency, trade openness has inhibitory effect. On the other hand, the spillover effect and crowding out effect (see spillover effect of certain industry growth drivers in other industries of carbon emission efficiency has a positive effect, squeeze The role of the opposite), expand the size of the industrial economy of agriculture, construction industry carbon emission efficiency of the extrusion effect on transport, storage and postal industry has a spillover effect; industrial and technological progress have spillover effect on agriculture, the construction industry, transportation, storage and postal industry there is a crowding out effect; industrial foreign trade expansion of agriculture, transportation, storage and postal industry spillover effects, there is crowding out effect on the building industry. Only the comprehensive industrial driving factors of crowding out effect, spillover effect and internal effect, can more fully grasp the industrial carbon emission efficiency (2). Industry internal driving factors have different effects, and industry effect between the same driving factors have obvious differences. In the industry, agriculture, mining industry, the three driving factors of construction industry are on the carbon emission efficiency Is a positive effect; electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, transportation, economy of scale and technical progress of warehousing and postal industry play a positive role, technical progress of manufacturing showed positive effects. Between industries, economies of scale under the impact of carbon emission efficiency of agriculture industry to enhance the most obvious followed by transportation, storage and postal industry, mining industry, electric power, gas and water production and supply industry, construction industry, and manufacturing efficiency of carbon emission decay; technological progress under the impact of carbon emissions and improve the efficiency of the largest for the construction industry, the minimum for transportation, storage and postal industry. The rest of the order from high to low: manufacturing, agriculture, mining, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry; trade liberalization impact, enhance the efficiency of carbon emissions from agriculture is most obvious, followed by the mining industry, construction industry, Other industries are decay. Finally, this paper based on the research results and puts forward related suggestions to improve the efficiency of industry carbon emissions for agriculture, need to pay attention to improve the quality of workers and accelerate economic development; stressed the need for industry, energy saving and technological progress; for transportation, storage and postal industry, should pay attention to energy saving and economic development; and for the carbon emission efficiency industry difference narrowed, suggested the actual effect of the government according to the industrial carbon emission efficiency of driving factors, aiming at inefficient industries, strengthen the monitoring and supervision of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and reasonable resource tilt.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;F224

【参考文献】