中缅油气管道工程堆积层滑坡灾害区施工风险评价研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 07:08

本文关键词：中缅油气管道工程堆积层滑坡灾害区施工风险评价研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：长输油气管道站多、线长、面广的特点,决定了管道建设不可避免地会在滑坡灾害区域进行。在国内外已有的滑坡区域管道施工事故中发现,管沟开挖、支护不当、施工堆载等都会引起坡体滑移,发生安全事故造成生命财产损失。为了防止管道施工过程中滑坡灾害的发生,为管道施工防灾减灾提供依据,本文依托于中缅长输油气管道工程,以堆积层滑坡灾害及管道工程施工行为为研究对象,开展了以下研究工作:(1)通过对全线滑坡灾害形态特征,发育规模的统计分析,总结沿线堆积层滑坡灾害的分布规律,研究管道施工诱发滑坡灾害的发育规律。(2)通过WBS法对滑坡灾害区管道施工阶段和施工工序进行分解,利用因果图法从“人、机、料、法、环”角度对风险因素进行辨识。(3)通过有限元模拟得到主要风险因素在管道施工对堆积层滑坡影响中的作用规律。(4)结合主要风险因素影响规律,研究建立施工风险概率评价指标体系。(5)研究利用贝叶斯网络和模糊综合法建立堆积层滑坡灾害区管道施工风险评价方法,并对漂亮河滑坡区域管道施工进行实例分析验证。通过以上研究,本文主要得到以下结论:(1)通过对中缅油气管道沿线滑坡灾害调查统计,得出堆积层滑坡和不稳定斜坡所占比例最高(68.5%),其中堆积层厚度在0～3m之间占85.7%,主要分布在泥砂岩或者其组合区域。管道和斜坡相交7种方式中,横切坡脚所占比例最高(44%)。管道施工诱发堆积层滑坡滑移的发育模式可分为快速开挖—拉剪滑移、荷载震动—拉剪滑移、低速开挖—降雨耦合三种模式。(2)在对堆积层滑坡区管道施工风险分析基础上,通过工作分解结构法(WBS)将滑坡灾害区管道施工分解为前期准备阶段、抗滑桩施工阶段、坡体防排水施工阶段、坡体监测阶段、管沟开挖与回填阶段5个施工阶段以及对应的14道主要施工工序。通过因果图法进行管道施工风险因素辨识,识别出了施工环境和5个施工阶段的主要风险因素及它们之间的层次关系,建立了对应的风险因素因果图。(3)通过有限元软件建立了堆积层滑坡区管道施工数值模型,对主要特征风险因素的影响规律进行了量化分析,得出坡高超过60m时,坡度超过45°时,对坡体稳定性起控制性作用的是坡体结构本身,坡脚开挖管沟对坡体稳定性影响减小。管道施工横切坡脚开挖降低坡体稳定性,施加施工荷载提高坡体稳定性;坡中和坡顶开挖提高坡体稳定性,施加施工荷载降低坡体稳定性。抗滑桩支护下嵌固段长度达到桩体1/3时,桩体布置在距离坡脚开挖面10～15m时,坡脚管沟开挖风险最小。(4)结合得到的主要特征因素影响规律,建立了施工风险概率评价指标体系,并得到了各风险因素指标等级的先验概率。利用贝叶斯网络法建立了施工环境和各施工阶段风险概率网络模型,可以实现对施工风险概率正向和反向推导。建立了生命、财产、环境三个方面的施工风险损失评价指标体系,利用模糊综合法建立了施工风险损失评价方法。最后建立了综合施工风险概率和施工风险损失的风险等级评价矩阵。(5)利用所建立的评价方法对漂亮河滑坡管道施工进行了风险评价,计算出总体施工风险概率为0.084931,属于“较高”风险概率等级,风险损失评价结果为“较轻”风险损失等级,综合得到施工风险等级为“中等”,符合现场施工情况,验证了该方法的实用性和正确性。
[Abstract]:Oil and gas pipeline station, line length, wide range of features, determines the pipeline construction inevitably in the landslide. The landslide area found in pipeline construction accidents at home and abroad, trench excavation, supporting the construction load properly, will cause the slope sliding, safety accidents caused losses life and property. In order to prevent the pipeline construction process, landslide, pipeline construction to provide the basis for disaster prevention and mitigation, based on the China Burma oil and gas pipeline project, the landslide disaster and pipeline construction behavior as the research object, carry out the following research work: (1) the morphological characteristics of the landslide disaster line analysis the development of the scale of statistics, summarized the distribution along the landslide disasters, development of pipeline construction induced landslides. (2) by WBS method to landslide disaster area and pipeline construction stage The construction process of decomposition, using causal method from "person, machine, material, method, to identify the risk factors of ring angle. (3) through the finite element simulation are the main risk factors in the pipeline construction on the landslide influence the role of law. (4) according to the main risk factors influence research to establish the evaluation index system of construction risk probability. (5) study the establishment of landslide disaster area pipeline construction risk assessment method based on Bayesian network stack and fuzzy comprehensive method, and the beautiful river were analyzed verification landslide area pipeline construction. By the research, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) through the investigation and statistics of the landslide disasters along the China Burma oil and gas pipeline, the landslide and slope instability in the highest proportion (68.5%), the accumulation layer thickness between 0 and 3M accounted for 85.7%, mainly distributed in the mud sandstone or their combination of pipeline and the area. The intersection of 7 slope way, cross slope has the highest proportion (44%). The pipeline construction induced accumulation development pattern of landslide slip can be divided into fast excavation - slip shear load, vibration slip shear, low speed excavation - rainfall coupled three models. (2) in the landslide area pipeline construction the risk analysis on the basis of the structure by the method of decomposition (WBS) of the landslide disaster area into pipeline construction preparation stage, construction stage of anti slide pile, slope drainage construction, slope monitoring, trench excavation and backfilling stage 5 construction stages and the corresponding 14 main construction process. The identification the factors of pipeline construction risk through causal method, to identify the relationship between levels of major risk factors in the construction environment and 5 construction stages and their risk factors, established the corresponding causality diagram. (3) through the finite element software to establish the heap Landslide area pipeline construction numerical model, the influence law of the main features of risk factors are quantitatively analyzed, the slope height is more than 60m, the slope more than 45 degrees, the controlling effect on the stability of slope the slope structure, slope excavation trench to reduce the effect on slope stability. The pipeline construction section reduce the excavation slope stability, exert construction load and enhance the stability of slope; slope and slope excavation to improve the stability of slope, exert construction load reducing slope stability. Anti slide piles under embedded pile length reached 1/3, the pile body is arranged in the range of 10 ~ 15m slope excavation, excavation risk the minimum tube toe. (4) combining influence of main characteristics of factors, establish the evaluation index system of construction risk probability, and get the prior probability of each risk factor index level was established. By using the Bayesian network method The construction environment and the construction phase of the risk probability network model, can be achieved on the construction risk probability of forward and reverse derivation. Established in three aspects of life, property, environment construction risk evaluation index system, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish a method of risk loss risk evaluation matrix construction. Finally the comprehensive construction and construction risk probability the risk of loss is established. (5) using the method of beautiful river pipeline construction of landslide risk assessment, calculate the overall construction risk probability is 0.084931, belong to "high" risk probability, risk evaluation results for the "lighter" risk level, the comprehensive construction risk rating for the "medium" in accordance with the site construction, to verify the correctness and practicability of the method.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE973;P642.22

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