我国钢铁行业产能过剩研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 06:15

本文关键词：我国钢铁行业产能过剩研究　出处：《上海社会科学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国产业结构调整和优化,近年来产能过剩问题日益突出。2008年全球经济危机后,在政府经济刺激下,企业过度投资,新一轮产能过剩爆发,产能过剩的领域也从一些重化工行业如电解铝、钢铁、煤炭行业等延伸到了如光伏、风电等高科技领域。在这些产能过剩行业中,钢铁工业上游连接煤炭、铁矿石等行业,下游连接房地产、建筑、汽车、机械制造等行业,是一个地方经济的支柱性产业,是关系国计民生的基础性行业,在国民经济中占有重要地位,但同也是产能过剩问题表现最突出、最典型也是最受政府重点关注的行业。面对日益严重的产能过剩,政府和学术界界在政策与理论研究上都给予了重大的关切。理论层面上学者们认为无论是企业的竞争策略行为、要素窖藏行为还是经济、行业发展周期都不足以完全解释我国钢铁行业产能过剩的形成机制,需要进一步从转型时期下我国体制因素挖掘。在此背景下,正确界定产能过剩的概念,采取合适的方法测算我国钢铁行业产能利用率并深入系统性探讨我国钢铁行业产能过剩的形成机制,就具有重大的理论与现实意义。本文先是梳理了现有国内外有关产能过剩的文献成果,接着再比较了产能过剩测度方法后采用生产函数法对我国钢铁行业产能利用率进行了测度并对此做了进一步分析。同时,本文也从企业微观基础、政府因素、行业本身特征、周期因素、经济发展方式等层面深入系统地分析了我国钢铁行业产能过剩的形成机制:我国转轨时期经济体制缺陷扭曲了要素价格,从而最终影响了产能过剩的爆发。然后,本文从实证角度验证了我国要素市场扭曲与钢铁行业产能利用率之间的关系。最后,在前文分析基础上,得出本文结论并提出了相关政策建议。本文得出的结论:(1)若按国际标准,我国钢铁行业产能利用率长期处于75%以下,表明我国钢铁行业长期处于产能过剩状态;(2)我国钢铁行业产能利用率走势与我国历史上产能过剩的三个划分阶段基本一致,也与判断产能过剩的辅助性指标(钢铁行业销售利润率、亏损面、钢铁价格指数、产成品存货)走势基本吻合;产能利用率走势受我国经济周期与政策因素影响大;(3)中国式产能过剩问题的根源在于制度扭曲带来的资源配置扭曲,这与西方发达国家市场经济下出现的周期性产能过剩有着本质区别。实证结果也表明,资本要素扭曲与能源要素扭曲显著性影响我国钢铁行业产能过剩。
[Abstract]:With the adjustment and optimization of China's industrial structure, the problem of overcapacity has become increasingly prominent in recent years. After the global economic crisis in 2008, under the stimulus of the government economy, enterprises overinvested and a new round of overcapacity broke out. Overcapacity also extends from heavy chemical industries such as electrolytic aluminum, steel and coal to high-tech areas such as photovoltaic and wind power, in which coal is connected upstream. Iron ore and other industries, downstream linking real estate, construction, automobile, machinery manufacturing and other industries, is a pillar of the local economy industry, is the basic industry related to the national economy and people's livelihood, occupies an important position in the national economy. However, the problem of overcapacity is also the most prominent, the most typical and most concerned by the government industry. Facing the increasingly serious overcapacity. Both the government and the academic circle have paid great attention to the policy and theory research. Theoretically, the scholars think that whether it is the competitive strategy behavior of the enterprise, the factor hoard behavior or the economy. The industry development cycle is not enough to fully explain the formation mechanism of overcapacity in China's iron and steel industry. It is necessary to dig out the institutional factors in the transitional period. Under this background, the concept of overcapacity should be defined correctly. Adopt appropriate method to calculate the utilization rate of iron and steel industry capacity in our country and discuss the forming mechanism of excess capacity of iron and steel industry of our country deeply and systematically. It is of great theoretical and practical significance. Firstly, this paper reviews the existing literature on overcapacity at home and abroad. After comparing the measurement methods of overcapacity, the paper uses the production function method to measure the capacity utilization ratio of steel industry in China and makes a further analysis. At the same time, this paper also from the micro basis of enterprises, government factors. The formation mechanism of overcapacity in China's iron and steel industry is deeply and systematically analyzed from the aspects of industry characteristics, cycle factors and economic development mode. The defects of economic system distort the factor price during the transition period of our country. Then, this paper verifies the relationship between factor market distortion and capacity utilization ratio of iron and steel industry from the empirical point of view. Finally, on the basis of the previous analysis. This paper draws a conclusion and puts forward relevant policy recommendations. The conclusion reached in this paper is: 1) if according to international standards, the utilization rate of China's iron and steel industry capacity is below 75% for a long time. It shows that China's iron and steel industry is in a state of overcapacity for a long time. 2) the trend of capacity utilization ratio in China's iron and steel industry is basically consistent with the three stages of the division of overcapacity in the history of our country, and also with the auxiliary index (sales profit margin and loss area) for judging overcapacity. Steel price index, finished goods inventory) trend is basically consistent; The trend of productivity utilization ratio is greatly affected by the economic cycle and policy factors in China; 3) the root of the problem of Chinese overcapacity lies in the distortion of resource allocation, which is different from the periodic overcapacity under the market economy of western developed countries. The empirical results also show that. The distortion of capital factor and energy factor has a significant effect on overcapacity of iron and steel industry in China.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.31

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