天然气管网目标可靠度的全生命周期优化决策

发布时间：2018-01-19 23:59

  本文关键词： 天然气管网 连通可靠性 全生命周期成本 粒子群优化算法　出处：《西南石油大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：天然气作为高效、经济的清洁能源,随着我国国民经济的飞速发展,对其需求也日益增加。天然气管网作为输送能源的重要枢纽,已经成为国家能源供应的不可或缺的一环。对于大型天然气管网来说,从全局、全生命、全系统的高度对天然气管网进行规划管理,是发展的必然趋势。因此,本文结合可靠性理论,对天然气管网连通可靠性、天然气管网全生命周期费用优化进行了研究。(1)搭建管道系统全生命周期成本分析的框架体系,为管道系统全生命周期成本费用优化提供可以参考的依据。将全生命周期成本分析分为4个过程:确定范围、数据采集和费用结构分解、分析与建模以及报告和决策。上述4个过程在实现全生命周期成本费用最小的目标之前,可以不断重复,直到达到目标要求。(2)天然气管网目标可靠度全生命周期优化决策可以分为两个阶段:管道系统目标设计可靠度全生命周期优化决策阶段和天然气管网目标运行可靠度全生命周期优化决策阶段,选取管道结构和站场作为两个阶段的优化对象。针对管道系统全生命周期优化决策,提出了以成本造价函数、维护维修费用函数、失效损失期望函数三者之和为目标函数的管道系统全生命周期成本费用函数,并分别给出了成本造价函数、维护维修费用函数、失效损失期望函数三者与设计可靠度之间的关系。根据工程实际情况,以可靠度约束和投资约束作为约束条件,建立了两种管道系统全生命周期成本优化决策模型。(3)依据图论,将天然气管网经过简化后转化为抽象的图一拓扑结构,并给出单气源和多气源天然气管网系统的连通可靠性指标及其逻辑表达式。通过将最小路集转化为矩阵,进行向量与矩阵的特殊运算,连通可靠度的逻辑表达式转化为解析表达式,得以计算连通可靠度。(4)针对天然气管网,提出了以维护维修费用函数、失效损失期望函数二者之和为目标函数的天然气管网全生命周期成本费用函数,并分别给出了维护维修费用函数、失效损失期望函数二者与运行可靠度之间的关系,以气源和门站的连通可靠度作为约束条件,构建了天然气管网运行可靠度优化决策模型。(5)对于复杂的连续函数,采用粒子群算法对其进行优化。经过计算发现,惯性权重0.4≤ω≤0.9、加速常数1.5≤c1≤2.0以及1.5≤c2≤2.0时,粒子群算法的精度能够满足要求。最后,为进一步提高算法的精度,在粒子群算法中引入收缩因子,并根据迭代步数对惯性权重、加速常数动态取值。
[Abstract]:Natural gas as an efficient and economic clean energy, with the rapid development of the national economy in China, the demand for natural gas pipe network as an important hub for energy transmission is also increasing day by day. Has become an indispensable part of national energy supply. For large-scale natural gas pipeline network, from the overall situation, the whole life, the whole system height of the natural gas pipeline network planning and management, is the inevitable trend of development. Based on the reliability theory, this paper studies the reliability of natural gas pipeline network and the optimization of the whole life cycle cost of natural gas pipeline network, and establishes the framework system of the whole life cycle cost analysis of pipeline system. The whole life cycle cost analysis is divided into four processes: determination range, data acquisition and cost structure decomposition. Analysis and modeling, as well as reporting and decision-making. These four processes can be repeated until the goal of minimizing the cost of the entire life cycle is achieved. Until the target is met. The whole life cycle optimization decision of target reliability of natural gas network can be divided into two stages:. The whole life cycle optimization stage of pipeline system reliability and the whole life cycle optimization stage of natural gas pipeline network target operation reliability. The pipeline structure and the station yard are selected as the optimization objects in two stages. Aiming at the whole life cycle optimization decision of the pipeline system, the cost cost function and the maintenance cost function are put forward. The life cycle cost function of pipeline system with the sum of the expected function of failure loss is the objective function, and the cost cost function and maintenance cost function are given respectively. The relationship between the expected function of failure loss and the design reliability. According to the actual situation of the project, the constraint of reliability and investment is taken as the constraint condition. Based on graph theory, two kinds of pipeline systems are transformed into abstract graph-topology. The connected reliability index and its logical expression of single gas source and multi gas source natural gas pipeline network system are given. By transforming the minimum path set into matrix, the special operation of vector and matrix is carried out. The logical expression of the connected reliability is transformed into an analytical expression, and the connected reliability can be calculated. 4) in view of the natural gas network, the maintenance cost function is put forward. The whole life cycle cost function of natural gas pipeline network with the sum of the expected failure loss function and the target function is given, and the maintenance cost function is given respectively. The relationship between the expected function of failure loss and the operational reliability is restricted by the connectivity reliability of the gas source and gate station. The optimization decision model of running reliability of natural gas network is constructed. (5) for the complex continuous function, particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize it. It is found that the inertia weight is 0.4 鈮，

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