河南省电力行业煤炭消费总量控制及其环境影响评估

发布时间：2018-02-07 12:20

本文关键词： 电力行业情景分析煤炭消费总量控制 CO排放污染物排放　出处：《中国煤炭》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用情景分析法和LEAP模型预测2015-2030年河南省电力行业煤炭消费总量和环境污染物排放情况,主要设置5种情景:基准情景、新能源情景、能效改善情景、天然气替代情景和煤炭总量控制情景。结果表明:在煤炭总量控制情景中,煤炭消费总量在2025年达到峰值128 Mt,提高能源利用效率相对于发展新能源发电和天然气替代煤炭发电在实现煤炭消费总量控制目标方面的实施效果更好;2030年新能源情景、能效改善情景、天然气替代情景和煤炭总量控制情景相对于基准情景CO2减排潜力分别为11.85%、19.59%、0.69%和28.84%;2030年煤炭总量控制情景下SO2、NOX和TSP的排放量将比2015年减少247.0kt、412.4kt和119.3kt,要实现超低排放目标,必须采用更加先进的末端治理技术。
[Abstract]:Using scenario analysis method and LEAP model to forecast the total coal consumption and environmental pollutant emission in Henan electric power industry from 2015 to 2030, there are five main scenarios: benchmark scenario, new energy scenario, energy efficiency improvement scenario. Natural gas substitution scenario and coal total control scenario. The results show that in the coal total control scenario, The total coal consumption reached a peak of 128mt in 2025, and the improvement of energy utilization efficiency is better than that of developing new energy generation and replacing coal power generation with natural gas in achieving the goal of total coal consumption control. Energy efficiency improvement scenarios, natural gas substitution scenarios and total coal control scenarios have a reduction potential of 19.590.69% and 28.84% relative to the baseline scenario, respectively. In 2030, the emissions of so _ 2N _ X and TSP in the coal total control scenario will be reduced by 247.0 ktl 412.4kt and 119.3kt compared with 2015, respectively, in order to achieve the ultra-low emission target, More advanced end-management techniques must be adopted.
【作者单位】：郑州大学化学与分子工程学院;
【分类号】：F426.21;F426.61;X820.3

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