江苏省主要能耗部门温室气体排放现状及排放情景预测研究

发布时间：2018-02-13 13:40

本文关键词： 能耗部门温室气体情景分析法江苏　出处：《江苏大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：世界资源研究所(WRI)的报告显示,2007年"世界上最大的碳排放国家"是中国。中国政府在经济腾飞的重要时刻始终重视低碳发展,中国政府制定了很多环境友好的发展战略,积极地应对气候变化,并将低碳发展纳入了经济社会发展的长期规划。国务院对气候变化也是积极应对:规定到2020年,全国百万国内生产总能耗比2015下降15%,总能耗控制在50亿吨标准煤。单位GDP二氧化碳排放量比2015年下降18%。江苏省是能源消费大省,本文采用《省级温室气体清单编制指南》和《IPCC 2006》,运用大量统计数据、调研数据和生成的新数据等,对江苏省主要能耗部门能耗部门温室气体排放现状进行了详细地分析。在研究温室气体排放现状的基础上,运用情景分析法,结合江苏省温室气体排放政策目标,研究到2030年碳排放分部门特征和总量特征。最后,给出江苏省今后低碳发展的措施建议。(1)江苏省主要能耗部门温室气体排放总量从2010年的5.58亿吨增加到2015年的7.36亿吨,年均增速约5.69%。其中,工业部门能耗产生温室气体排放约占全省温室气体排放总量的90%,但比重逐年下降,其次为交通部门温室气体排放,约占全省温室气体排放总量的7%,且比重逐年上升。(2)在三种情境下,江苏省主要能耗部门温室气体排放总量都是保持增长趋势,通过优化一二三产业结构、改进能源利用效率等技术,江苏省主要能耗部门温室气体排放总量预计在2030年前后出现峰值,约为13.07亿-14.18亿吨,碳排放强度约为0.82吨/万元-0.89吨/万元。(3)江苏省今后的低碳发展路径可以分为五个部门来分析:优化工业企业能源结构;控制房屋建筑面积;减缓汽车保有量增速;大力发展现代服务业;加快农业现代化。具体措施正文详解。
[Abstract]:In 2007, "the world's largest carbon emitter" was China, according to a report by the World Resources Research Institute. In 2007, the Chinese government always attached importance to low-carbon development at an important moment of economic take-off, and the Chinese government formulated many environment-friendly development strategies. Actively tackling climate change and integrating low-carbon development into long-term plans for economic and social development. The State Council is also active in tackling climate change: by 2020, The total energy consumption of China's million domestic production is 15% lower than that of 2015, and the total energy consumption is controlled at 5 billion tons of standard coal. The carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP are 18% lower than in 2015. Jiangsu Province is a big energy consumption province. In this paper, we use the guidelines for the preparation of Provincial greenhouse Gas inventories and the IPCC 2006, using a large number of statistical data, survey data and new data generated, etc. The present situation of greenhouse gas emission in the main energy consumption departments of Jiangsu Province is analyzed in detail. On the basis of studying the present situation of greenhouse gas emissions, the scenario analysis method is used to combine the policy objectives of greenhouse gas emission in Jiangsu Province. The characteristics of subsector and total amount of carbon emissions by 2030 are studied. Finally, suggestions for future low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province are given.) the total greenhouse gas emissions of major energy consuming sectors in Jiangsu Province increase from 558 million tons in 2010 to 736 million tons in 2015. The average annual growth rate is about 5.69%. Among them, energy consumption in the industrial sector accounts for about 90% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the province, but the proportion is decreasing year by year, followed by greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. Accounting for about 7% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Jiangsu Province, and the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions is rising year by year.) in three situations, the total greenhouse gas emissions of the main energy consumption departments in Jiangsu Province are all keeping the trend of growth, and through optimizing the industrial structure of 123, To improve energy use efficiency and other technologies, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions from major energy consumption departments in Jiangsu Province is expected to peak around 2030, about one billion three hundred and seven million to one billion four hundred and eighteen million tons. The future low-carbon development path of Jiangsu Province can be divided into five parts: optimizing the energy structure of industrial enterprises, controlling the building area of houses, slowing down the growth rate of automobile ownership; Vigorously develop the modern service industry; speed up the modernization of agriculture.
【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X16

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