基于定量风险分析的化工园区安全容量评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 22:23

本文选题：化工园区 + 定量风险分析　；参考：《重庆科技学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国化工园区数量持续攀升,园区内危险物质引发重特大事故的情况也仍时有发生。为了让相关部门和园区管理者能更明了地把控化工园区产业规模的安全阈值,保证园区安全持续的发展和企业效益最大化,园区安全容量的评估及应用研究是当前亟待解决的重要课题。本文详细分析了国内外关于定量风险分析和安全容量的发展现状,以园区整体风险为基础,明确了化工园区安全容量基本概念和研究范围,结合工程实例开展了关于化工园区安全容量综合评价模型的研究。主要的研究成果如下:(1)通过CASST-QRA V2.0软件的辅助计算,将安全设施设备对风险的控制系数λi引入园区风险总量的计算式中,同时,结合层次分析法和模糊综合评价法等手段,确定其他影响因素对固定危险源安全容量的修正因子α,改进了固定危险源安全容量评价模型;(2)以园区区域内单次运输风险量和装卸点潜在生命损失值为基础,结合园区年实际周转量,提出化工园区移动危险源评价模型,克服了以往研究中将移动危险源风险等同于危险化学品交通运输泄漏事故风险带来的差异;(3)利用Matlab开发了化工园区安全容量综合评价系统软件,为计算化工园区固定危险源和移动危险源提供技术支撑;(4)将研究成果应用于重庆某石化基地,计算出该石化基地的固定危险源和移动危险源安全容量,并给出合理化建议,验证了安全容量计算模型在解决工程实际问题中的实用性,力求为化工园区科学管理和安全决策提供参考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of chemical parks in China continues to rise, and the serious accidents caused by hazardous substances still occur from time to time. In order to make the safety threshold of the industrial scale of the control chemical park more clear to the relevant departments and park managers, and to ensure the sustainable development of the park security and the maximization of the enterprise benefit, The evaluation and application of park security capacity is an important task to be solved. In this paper, the present situation of quantitative risk analysis and safety capacity at home and abroad is analyzed in detail. Based on the overall risk of the park, the basic concept and research scope of safety capacity in chemical industry park are defined. The comprehensive evaluation model of safety capacity of chemical park is studied with engineering examples. The main research results are as follows: (1) through the aided calculation of CASST-QRA V2.0 software, the risk control coefficient 位 I of safety facilities is introduced into the calculation formula of the total risk of the park. At the same time, it combines the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, etc. Determining the correction factor 伪 of other influencing factors to the safety capacity of fixed risk sources and improving the evaluation model of safety capacity of fixed risk sources, the model is based on the single transportation risk and the potential life loss value of loading and unloading points in the park area. Combined with the actual annual turnover of the park, the evaluation model of the moving hazard source in the chemical industry park is put forward. The paper overcomes the difference that the risk of moving dangerous source is equated with the risk of leakage accident caused by traffic and transportation of dangerous chemicals in the past. The software of comprehensive evaluation system for safety capacity of chemical industry park is developed by using Matlab. In order to provide technical support for the calculation of fixed and moving hazard sources in chemical industry park, the research results are applied to a petrochemical base in Chongqing. The safe capacity of fixed and moving hazard sources in this petrochemical base is calculated, and some reasonable suggestions are given. The practicability of the safety capacity calculation model in solving practical engineering problems is verified, and the reference for scientific management and safety decision of chemical industry park is sought.
【学位授予单位】：重庆科技学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TQ086

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