基于鱼骨图分析的化工企业多米诺风险评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 12:31

本文选题：鱼骨图分析法 + 多米诺效应　；参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济持续高速发展,各类危险源、风险源数量急剧上升,重大化工事故频频发生。在众多重大事故中,多米诺效应往往是造成重大人员伤亡、巨额财产损失和环境污染的关键因素。但在化工企业生产过程中,由于对多米诺效应认识不足,把风险事故视为单一事件,无法全面识别存在于安全管理和环保管理中可能导致多米诺事故的风险来源。据此开展的风险评估和相应的应急措施缺乏预见性和针对性,极易引发生产装置和环保装置之间的连锁反应。基于这一背景,本文引入分析因果关系的鱼骨图分析法,对化工企业多米诺事故发生的根本原因和关键环节进行定性分析,得出化工企业多米诺风险的主要原因包括六个方面:工艺设备、原辅材料、工作人员、安全管理、环保管理和应急救援体系。在鱼骨图分析的基础之上,提出多米诺风险指数,用以表征企业多米诺风险的大小。所建立的多米诺风险指数评价体系包括6个分指数和15个下一级指标。多米诺风险指数包括工艺设备风险、原辅材料风险、工作人员风险、安全管理风险、环保管理风险和应急救援体系风险等六个分指数。对每个风险分指数,确定下一级指标和具体参数以及相应的计算方法和取值标准。根据该多米诺风险指数评价方法,本文对徐州市邳州经济开发区中的考伯斯(江苏)炭素化工有限公司进行具体案例分析。首先,运用多米诺风险指数评价体系对该企业进行评价。计算得到的多米诺风险指数得分为6.57,根据分级标准确定该企业具有重大多米诺风险。其次,根据多米诺风险指数和分指数的得分情况,对化工企业多米诺风险水平进行分析:企业中最可能造成多米诺风险的原因在于安全管理上存在的问题。随后依次是应急救援体系、原辅材料、环保管理、工艺设备、工作人员等方面存在的问题。在安全管理方面,设备之间安全间距不足可能导致严重的多米诺风险事故;在应急救援体系方面,应急预案的不完善所带来的风险最大;在环保管理和工艺设备方面,由于相关设备的检修维护程度不够和使用年限的增加,引发多米诺风险的可能性较大。最后,采用《企业突发环境事件风险评估指南(试行)》风险等级划分方法计算结果进行对比。利用该指南评估方法计算得出该企业具有较大风险等级。对比两种方法发现,由于缺乏对多米诺风险和连锁事故的考虑,现有风险评价方法低估了考伯斯公司发生多米诺风险的可能性。研究结果表明,与现有的风险评估方法相比,基于鱼骨图分析的化工企业多米诺风险指数评价方法可以系统分析多米诺事故的成因,建立相应的多米诺风险评估体系,为企业改善风险环节和全面提升多米诺风险防控措施水平提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and rapid development of economy in China, the number of risk sources increases sharply and major chemical accidents occur frequently. In many serious accidents, domino effect is the key factor that causes heavy casualties, huge property losses and environmental pollution. However, in the production process of chemical enterprises, due to lack of understanding of domino effect, risk accidents are regarded as a single event, which can not fully identify the risk sources that may lead to domino accidents in safety management and environmental protection management. The risk assessment and the corresponding emergency measures are lack of predictability and pertinence, which can easily trigger a chain reaction between the production plant and the environmental protection device. Based on this background, this paper introduces the fish bone chart analysis method to analyze the causality, and qualitatively analyzes the root causes and key links of the domino accident in chemical enterprises. The main causes of domino risk in chemical enterprises include six aspects: process equipment, raw and auxiliary materials, staff, safety management, environmental protection management and emergency rescue system. Based on the analysis of fish bone map, a domino risk index is proposed to represent the domino risk of enterprises. The Domino risk index evaluation system consists of 6 sub-indices and 15 lower-level indexes. The Domino risk index includes six indices: process equipment risk, raw and auxiliary material risk, staff risk, safety management risk, environmental management risk and emergency rescue system risk. For each risk index, determine the next level of indicators and specific parameters, as well as the corresponding calculation method and value criteria. According to the Domino risk index evaluation method, this paper makes a case study on the carbon Chemical Co., Ltd in Pizhou Economic Development Zone of Xuzhou. First of all, use Domino risk index evaluation system to evaluate the enterprise. The calculated Domino risk index score is 6.57, according to the classification criteria determine that the enterprise has a significant domino risk. Secondly, according to the score of Domino risk index and sub-index, this paper analyzes the domino risk level of chemical enterprises: the most likely cause of domino risk lies in the problem of safety management. Followed by emergency rescue system, raw and auxiliary materials, environmental protection management, process equipment, staff and other aspects of the problems. In the area of safety management, inadequate safety spacing between equipment may lead to serious domino risk accidents; in the emergency rescue system, the greatest risk is caused by inadequate contingency plans; and in environmental management and process equipment, Because the maintenance degree of related equipment is not enough and the service life is increasing, it is possible to cause domino risk. Finally, the calculated results are compared by the risk assessment guidelines for unexpected environmental events (trial) > the risk classification method. The evaluation method is used to calculate that the enterprise has a large risk level. Comparing the two methods, it is found that due to the lack of consideration of domino risk and chain accident, the existing risk assessment methods underestimate the possibility of domino risk. The results show that compared with the existing risk assessment methods, the domino risk index evaluation method based on fish bone map analysis can systematically analyze the causes of domino accidents and establish the corresponding domino risk assessment system. It provides decision basis for enterprises to improve risk link and to improve domino risk prevention and control measures.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.7

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